⚡️ Friends, the prices of gold and silver have dropped quite sharply, and market sentiment has become tense. Bitcoin also swayed a bit, briefly falling below $75,000, and many are starting to worry whether it will crash as well.
However, if you broaden the perspective, the situation doesn't look so pessimistic. Gold prices can drop 9% in a day, silver has dropped nearly 30%, while Bitcoin's 24-hour drop is only around 1%, clearly not that panicked.
On-chain data also shows that although market sentiment is somewhat fearful, Bitcoin's valuation itself is actually not that high, and some oversold signals have appeared, indicating it is not entirely synchronized with the movements of precious metals.
▌ So the question arises: since it didn't follow the rise, will it follow the drop now?
Looking back, the multiple failed attempts to rise last month were actually predictable. Trading data observed that there have been large orders pressing sell orders below $90,000, blocking price increases like a wall. This kind of liquidity suppression is particularly common before and after options expiration, with some large holders creating pressure by placing large sell orders to guide prices in the direction they desire, making it easier for themselves to accumulate at lower levels or manage risks.
Meanwhile, buying pressure below had formed a support zone between $85,000 - $87,500, which held the price multiple times. Unfortunately, this area was later broken, leading to accelerated selling and amplified volatility. This also indicates that during sensitive emotional phases, once key positions are lost, it is easy to trigger a chain reaction.
At present, it seems that Bitcoin has formed a new confrontation zone around $77,000 - $80,000. Although market sentiment is bearish and many have been liquidated, short sellers are also taking some profits, and some large holders have begun to tentatively buy in batches. The short-term long-short game will be quite intense, but the probability of directly following a collapse is not high.
Ultimately, the logic of this round of Bitcoin is somewhat different from that of gold and silver. The former is more influenced by factors such as liquidity, large holders' positions, and the expiration of derivatives, while the latter is closer to traditional macro sentiment and changes in dollar liquidity. The short-term rhythm may overlap, but the underlying motivations have gradually diverged.
If it can hold the support around $77,000 in the next phase, market sentiment may gradually recover. However, if it breaks the next key position, the adjustment period may be prolonged. During periods of increased volatility, following trend-based operations may be more prudent than making unilateral bets; do not try to catch the top or bottom, just act according to the signals.
