Post
Has Bitcoin reached its peak now (around $125K) or is there still a chance for $177K like many on-chain analysts target? Let's discuss based on historical data, cycle indicators, and macroeconomic behavior in 2025 ๐
๐งฉ 1. Current Bitcoin Cycle Position (November 2025)
If we use the classic Bitcoin cycle model based on the halving cycle (every 4 years):
HalvingYearInitial BullPeak 2025โ2026โโ
โณ The last halving occurred in April 2024, so historical cycle peaks usually happen 12โ18 months after the halving, which is between May 2025 โ October 2026.
This means:
Statistics still support that Bitcoin has not reached its main peak.
๐ 2. On-Chain Data & Cycle Indicators
Several key indicators used by cycle analysts (Glassnode, LookIntoBitcoin, etc.):
IndicatorCurrent ConditionMeaningMVRV-Z Score3.2 (not extreme)Usually >7 at the peak of a bull runPuell Multiple1.6Peaks usually at >3RHODL RatioRising, but not overheatedStill in mid-cycle phaseRealized Cap HODL WavesLong-term dominance decreasingDistribution starting but not extremeFunding RateNormal โ not full euphoriaMarket not in bubble
๐ง On-chain conclusion:
Bitcoin has not shown signs of distribution peaks like in 2017 & 2021. Still in the middle of the expansion phase.
๐ต 3. Mathematical Target: $177,000 โ Still Reasonable?
Several models point to that range:
ModelPeak EstimateExplanationStock-to-Flow (S2F)$165Kโ$190KBased on post-halving scarcityLog Regression Model$150Kโ$180KRange of the logarithmic top channelCycle Fibonacci Extension (2021 โ 2025)1.618 = $177KSymmetry with previous cyclesTotal Crypto M.Cap Target 20266โ7TImplies BTC โ $170Kโ$190K
๐ฏ So mathematically and historically:
The target of $177K per BTC is still very realistic for the peak cycle of 2025โ2026,
as long as there is no major macro crisis (e.g., global war, extreme stagflation, etc.).
๐งฉ 1. Current Bitcoin Cycle Position (November 2025)
If we use the classic Bitcoin cycle model based on the halving cycle (every 4 years):
HalvingYearInitial BullPeak 2025โ2026โโ
โณ The last halving occurred in April 2024, so historical cycle peaks usually happen 12โ18 months after the halving, which is between May 2025 โ October 2026.
This means:
Statistics still support that Bitcoin has not reached its main peak.
๐ 2. On-Chain Data & Cycle Indicators
Several key indicators used by cycle analysts (Glassnode, LookIntoBitcoin, etc.):
IndicatorCurrent ConditionMeaningMVRV-Z Score3.2 (not extreme)Usually >7 at the peak of a bull runPuell Multiple1.6Peaks usually at >3RHODL RatioRising, but not overheatedStill in mid-cycle phaseRealized Cap HODL WavesLong-term dominance decreasingDistribution starting but not extremeFunding RateNormal โ not full euphoriaMarket not in bubble
๐ง On-chain conclusion:
Bitcoin has not shown signs of distribution peaks like in 2017 & 2021. Still in the middle of the expansion phase.
๐ต 3. Mathematical Target: $177,000 โ Still Reasonable?
Several models point to that range:
ModelPeak EstimateExplanationStock-to-Flow (S2F)$165Kโ$190KBased on post-halving scarcityLog Regression Model$150Kโ$180KRange of the logarithmic top channelCycle Fibonacci Extension (2021 โ 2025)1.618 = $177KSymmetry with previous cyclesTotal Crypto M.Cap Target 20266โ7TImplies BTC โ $170Kโ$190K
๐ฏ So mathematically and historically:
The target of $177K per BTC is still very realistic for the peak cycle of 2025โ2026,
as long as there is no major macro crisis (e.g., global war, extreme stagflation, etc.).
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content.ย See T&Cs.
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