#WhenWillBTCRebound #TRUMP #elomusk #BTC #eua $BTC
The harsh truth: if you think Bitcoin dropped 'because Trump and Elon pressed a button', you are outsourcing your responsibility. The market does not forgive this kind of lazy explanation.
What the data shows (and why this affects the price)
1) Liquidity rules (Fed and dollar): the market reacted to the fear of a more 'harsh' turn in liquidity with the indication of Kevin Warsh to succeed **Jerome Powell — he has already advocated for a Fed with a smaller balance sheet, and crypto tends to suffer when the scenario points to less 'easy money'.
2) Risk-off in chain (macro + geopolitical): along with this, inflation, geopolitical tensions, and even shutdown noise in the US were factored in — the perfect package to cut risk.
3) Leverage bursts first: when the price drops and people are leveraged, a 'domino effect' of liquidations comes. In one of the worst recent moments, liquidations were reported near US$ 1.7 billion in 24h (hundreds of thousands of traders).
4) Institutional flow is not 'faith', it is a spreadsheet: ETFs helped to rise when money enters, and help to fall when it exits. There were recent days with significant outflows in spot ETFs (e.g.: hundreds of millions in a single day, particularly from BlackRock and Fidelity funds).
Where Trump and Elon come in (no fantasy)
Yes: public statements and actions can generate short-term volatility (e.g.: the Tesla case and crypto payments already caused a strong drop on the day).
No (the main point): the current drop does not need a single villain. The financial outlets themselves are pointing to liquidity/Fed/dollar + risk-off + leverage + ETF flow as dominant engines.
FACTS vs NARRATIVES — SOURCES AND DATA (for you to cite safely)
Well-supported facts from sources
Bitcoin dropped to the range of ~US$ 82 thousand and was described as a low of ~2 months, with pressure linked to speculation/decision on the next Fed chair and strengthening of the dollar.
A Reuters describes the movement as part of a worsening sequence, citing nearly 4 consecutive months of decline and a loss of about 1/3 from the record high in October.
The market also digested: geopolitical tensions, inflation, and shutdown risk, reflecting on stocks and metals — typical 'risk-off'.
There was a recent episode with liquidations reported near US$ 1.7 billion in 24h, amplifying the decline (leverage mechanics).
Financial vehicles reported strong outflows in spot ETFs on specific days (hundreds of millions), and also accumulated outflows near ~US$ 985 million in 3 days at the end of January.
Public statements/actions have already caused short-term shocks before: when Tesla suspended accepting Bitcoin for cars (2021), the price dropped >10% on the day, according to Reuters.
Regulation remains a structural risk: Reuters documents China's broad ban in 2021, which caused Bitcoin to drop on the announcement day.
Internal crises in the sector are recurring triggers of decline: collapse/insolvency of major players (e.g.: FTX) become historical landmarks of risk aversion.
The collapse of TerraUSD/Luna is treated as a mass damage event (estimates of ~US$ 40 billion in destruction), with a domino effect in the sector.
Reputation/regulation also weighs: Reuters reported strong growth of financial crime in crypto (e.g.: Chainalysis estimating US$ 82 billion in illicit transactions in 2025), fueling regulatory pressure and 'risk premium'.
Narratives that do NOT have solid proof (or are dangerous simplifications)
“Trump + Elon brought down Bitcoin together” → I didn't find a reliable primary source supporting coordination/direct causality for the current drop. What appears in major outlets is macro/liquidity/flow/leverage as the dominant explanation.
“There is a single culprit” → significant declines are usually multifactorial (liquidity + risk + derivative structure + flow).
“ETF always supports the price” → ETF is flow: it enters and exits. When it exits strongly, it becomes headwind.
“Every drop is manipulation” → there may be abuse in microstructures, but attributing the entire drop to this without proof becomes a mental crutch (and prevents you from managing risk methodically).
FACTS vs NARRATIVES — SOURCES AND DATA (for you to cite safely)
Well-supported facts from sources
Bitcoin dropped to the range of ~US$ 82 thousand and was described as a low of ~2 months, with pressure linked to speculation/decision on the next Fed chair and strengthening of the dollar.
A Reuters describes the movement as part of a worsening sequence, citing nearly 4 consecutive months of decline and a loss of about 1/3 from the record high in October.
The market also digested: geopolitical tensions, inflation, and shutdown risk, reflecting on stocks and metals — typical 'risk-off'.
There was a recent episode with liquidations reported near US$ 1.7 billion in 24h, amplifying the decline (leverage mechanics).
Financial vehicles reported strong outflows in spot ETFs on specific days (hundreds of millions), and also accumulated outflows near ~US$ 985 million in 3 days at the end of January.
Public statements/actions have already caused short-term shocks before: when Tesla suspended accepting Bitcoin for cars (2021), the price dropped >10% on the day, according to Reuters.
Regulation remains a structural risk: Reuters documents China's broad ban in 2021, which caused Bitcoin to drop on the announcement day.
Internal crises in the sector are recurring triggers of decline: collapse/insolvency of major players (e.g.: FTX) become historical landmarks of risk aversion.
The collapse of TerraUSD/Luna is treated as a mass damage event (estimates of ~US$ 40 billion in destruction), with a domino effect in the sector.
Reputation/regulation also weighs: Reuters reported strong growth of financial crime in crypto (e.g.: Chainalysis estimating US$ 82 billion in illicit transactions in 2025), fueling regulatory pressure and 'risk premium'.
Narratives that do NOT have solid proof (or are dangerous simplifications)
“Trump + Elon brought down Bitcoin together” → I didn't find a reliable primary source supporting coordination/direct causality for the current drop. What appears in major outlets is macro/liquidity/flow/leverage as the dominant explanation.
“There is a single culprit” → significant declines are usually multifactorial (liquidity + risk + derivative structure + flow).
“ETF always supports the price” → ETF is flow: it enters and exits. When it exits strongly, it becomes headwind.
“Every drop is manipulation” → there may be abuse in microstructures, but attributing the entire drop to this without proof becomes a mental crutch (and prevents you from managing risk methodically).
30 practical tips to deal with and manage (without becoming a hostage to emotions)
1. Define how much you accept to lose per trade/week/month.
2. Use position sizing before thinking about 'target'.
3. If using leverage: treat it like nitroglycerin (short and small pair).
4. Have a rule: do not trade tired, anxious, or in a hurry.
5. Avoid 'all-in'. Prefer layered entries (DCA or scaling).
6. Stop 'marrying narratives'. Marry risk management.
7. Rebalance: when it rises too much, realize part; when it drops, only increase if the plan allows.
8. Have 'cash': liquidity gives you options, options give you power.
9. Prohibit yourself from trading on the first impulse after news (wait 15–60 min).
10. Separate portfolios: long term ≠ trade.
11. Survival rule: do not try to recover losses quickly.
12. If you don't understand derivatives (funding, OI, liquidation), do not trade derivatives.
13. Use stop with logic: stop invalidates thesis, not 'stomach ache'.
14. Write the thesis in 1 sentence: if it doesn't fit, you don't have a thesis.
15. Stop following the price all day: set windows (e.g.: 2x/day).
16. Follow the macro agenda: Fed, inflation, payroll… this affects 'risk-on/risk-off'.
17. Watch the dollar and financial conditions: when the dollar tightens, risk suffers.
18. If volatility spikes, reduce exposure (do not increase).
19. Have an anti-FOMO rule: “if I missed the movement, I missed it”.
20. Use a 'checklist before clicking' (3 reasons to enter, 2 to exit).
21. Avoid trading on rumors. Prioritize primary sources or reliable outlets.
22. Understand that ETF is flow: on days of outflow, the wind can turn.
23. Do not confuse 'cheap' with 'good point': wait for structure and plan.
24. Limit sequential losses: 2 stops in a day = end.
25. Do post-operation: 5 lines of what you did right/wrong (without torturing yourself).
26. If your strategy needs 'cheering', it is weak.
27. Diversify with intention (not with 40 random altcoins).
28. Security: 2FA, cold wallet when it makes sense, be careful with phishing.
29. Define a 'protection mode': when the market goes insane, you become smaller.
30. Brutal reminder: if you don't control risk, the market controls you.
