#BTC何时反弹？
The current controversy over the rebound time of BTC lies in the rewriting of historical rules due to changes in market structure. The adjustment cycles of the previous three bear markets, lasting 12-13 months, are no longer applicable. In 2026, institutional holdings are expected to exceed 40%, with giants like MicroStrategy increasing their holdings against the trend, forming a capital ballast that significantly shortens the adjustment cycle, predicting a bottoming and rebound in 9-10 months.
In the short term, BTC has reached a key support level of $76,000, and the RSI indicator has entered the oversold area, indicating a technical need for a rebound. However, it must break through the resistance level of $100,000 to open up upward space. The halving event in April will reduce supply, combined with continuous capital inflow from spot ETFs, is likely to trigger a pre-halving rebound.
From a medium-term perspective, the end of the Federal Reserve's tightening policy and the clarification of the regulatory framework will become core catalysts. If the CLARITY Act is implemented, it is expected to trigger a new wave of institutional allocation, combined with the supply contraction effect after the halving, making a substantial rebound highly probable before mid-2026. In an optimistic scenario, prices may reach the range of $120,000-$150,000 by the end of the year.
Amid the intertwining of historical rules and real signals, the BTC rebound has entered a countdown window, with the movement of institutional funds and the breakthrough of key resistance levels serving as confirmation signals.
