I have changed my investment perspective for this year. Because the January candle closed very poorly, I have completely dismissed the possibility of the market experiencing a weekly rebound.
Top coins have broken through strong support, notably $SOL has completed a head and shoulders pattern on the monthly chart, $AAVE has broken through the diagonal trendline with the monthly candle, $LINK has broken through the 11.7-12$ zone. Therefore, there is no weekly rebound here at all. From the February 2026 monthly candle onward, there will only be a rise to retest the already broken strong support before looking for a new bottom.
Combining with my horoscope, from January 19, 2026, to March 18, 2026, is a difficult time for me to make money. From March 19, 2026, to June 14, 2026, is the time when I can easily make money. In the past, when I analyzed by month and year, the times I could easily make money according to my horoscope always coincided with uptrend periods or rebounds, while difficult times corresponded to years and months of downtrends. (because this is my main profession)
I believe that the market will continue to decline until nearly the end of this first quarter, and it may even create a long-term bottom in this first quarter. The second quarter will be a time of price increase, potentially a rebound. Thus, the 6-month candle for the first half of the year will be a long-legged candle. The third quarter will likely be the time when the entire market creates a long-term bottom (or retests the long-term bottom created in the first quarter to form a double bottom pattern). After that, the market will enter a real uptrend.
During this downtrend season, I think top coins will die in droves. This will be a very catastrophic coin cleansing season.
For hold coins, temporarily there is none on my list that closed the last month's candle beautifully enough to confirm exiting the downtrend. So I will wait a bit longer.
