📌 American Political Context – Market Reading
🇺🇸 Democratic officials mention the possibility of impeachment initiatives against Trump and Vance in the event of a victory in the 2026 midterm elections and a takeover of Congress.
📊 Prediction markets, notably Polymarket, currently estimate an 81% probability of a Democratic victory in these midterms.
🔎 Pro-market Reading:
• This type of scenario increases the political uncertainty premium
• Investors are mainly watching for potential impacts on:
• institutional stability
• budgetary policy
• market regulation and digital asset regulation
💡 Historically, it is not the political announcements themselves that move the markets, but the visibility (or lack thereof) on the trajectory of power.
➡️ In the short term: narrative volatility
➡️ In the medium term: arbitrage and capital repositioning
