The topic of price targets is always controversialโฆ Personally, I don't like to rely on them too much.
In both bull and bear markets, when you have a number in mind, it can make you hesitate in your decision โ neither selling too early nor buying at the right time. But if I had to specify a range, after the market structure broke in October, I saw the area of 70 โ 74 thousand dollars.
At that time, many saw it as a bit far, but after a drop of more than 20 thousand, it became closer to reality. The market always makes us change our convictions ๐
Why this area specifically?
โ Correction closer to the 2019 scenario
I expect the correction to be lighter and shorter than the usual bear market lows.
โ As the market matures, the crashes have lessened.
With the entry of institutions and increased adoption, corrections have become less severe. Personally, I don't see a logical scenario where Bitcoin drops below 50,000.
โ Previous cycle peaks often serve as support
Historically, the lows tend to be close to the peak of the previous cycle or slightly below it, which gives that area significant technical weight.
But alsoโฆ history is not the Quran ๐ it's just a factor that helps in weighing probabilities.
So why don't I like targets?
Because they create a false sense of confidence.
๐ In a bull market: waiting for a higher number and missing the profit opportunity.
๐ In a bear market: waiting for a bigger drop that may not come at all.
That's why I treat them as potential areas, not fixed numbers.
For example, we might see a large accumulation (Wyckoff) between 76 โ 80 thousand, and at that time you have to go with the price actionโฆ not with the number in your head.
Summary:
Those who know how to adapt to the market are the ones who thrive in it.
And if you ask me about the number so far?
I still see 70 โ 74 thousand as a reasonable area โ and my view of it hasn't changed for months.
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