Brothers! Unbelievable, the precious metals market has plummeted dramatically! In 36 hours, 70 trillion dollars vanished into thin air. This is just insane! Gold plummeted from 5600 dollars to 4700, and silver suffered even more, dropping from 121 dollars to 77 dollars. Countless retail investors who tried to bottom-fish were buried and couldn’t even cry! Who would have thought that everyone stayed up waiting for interest rate cuts and monetary easing, only to be met with an epic 'slaughterhouse', and who is the mastermind behind all this?
That's right, the answer is the new Federal Reserve chairman nominated by Trump — Kevin Warsh! This time, we all got it completely wrong. Previously, the entire internet was talking nonsense, saying that Trump coming to power would definitely force Powell to cut interest rates, the dollar would depreciate, and gold and silver would soar. A bunch of fools went all in and leveraged up, thinking they could win easily! As a result, Trump threw a bombshell and nominated Warsh.
Everyone thought the new chairman would be a dove representative, but unexpectedly, he is the real 'hawkish king'! Back when he was on the Federal Reserve Board, he dared to directly confront Bernanke, publicly criticizing quantitative easing and being the arch-nemesis of QE! But once he was elected, the previous dreams of interest rate cuts shattered; this is the core truth of the collapse!
Here comes the question: with this expectation collapse, why are retail investors always cut at the highest point?
Bai Ge believes that this is a 'death flash crash' triggered by expectations, and the common problem of retail investors has happened again! The previous logic was so fervent, and the current collapse is equally severe. Everyone collectively gambled on interest rate cuts, bet on inflation, and then went all in on precious metals, crazily leveraged, blowing the bubble high into the sky. As a result, Warsh, the 'hawkish guru,' took office. Forget about interest rate cuts; the reduction in the balance sheet may be fiercer than anyone else! Once expectations collapse, bulls trample each other, and high-leverage speculators instantly face liquidation, losing everything!
Is this the fate of retail investors? No! It's that you are too foolish! Always believing in traditional safe-haven assets, but forgetting that premiums without underlying support are just castles on the beach! Once liquidity collapses and expectations reverse, even the strongest myths can vanish overnight, just like the collapse of ICO projects in the crypto circle back then!
Of course, brothers, it’s not that the precious metals sector has completely lost opportunities. You should know that this wave of bull market for gold has been ongoing since 2016, and it has been ten years. The last bull market peaked in 2011, and for the next four years, the price of gold almost halved, while silver dropped by 80%.
These two waves of bull markets are actually the first two waves of the 'super bull market' after the twenty-year bear market from 1980 to 2000. Now the second wave is almost over. Logically, there might be a third wave, but this wave has risen too much and for too long. Bai Ge believes that the peak of this second wave is likely around this position.
If there are brothers trading gold and silver, rather than rushing in now to gamble on that uncertain increase, it is better to wait for it to drop thoroughly before slowly entering the market. Opportunities will always exist, but once the money is gone, it’s truly gone.
After discussing precious metals, let's return to the crypto market trends! After experiencing yesterday's sharp decline, Bitcoin's short-term trend is not finished yet and is in a 'weak rebound.' The key is whether it can stabilize around 85000. If it can't hold above, it will continue to drop.
If it really falls down to 82000, that is a support level. If it breaks below 82000, it will continue to drop. Bai Ge believes that the real drop target is around 80000, where there may be large funds waiting to buy in. If it can't hold above 80000, then it will really head straight for 69000.
Ethereum's performance has been quite average. Bitcoin's rebound is due to the inflow of funds, while Ethereum's weak trend is because it has been heavily drained by Bitcoin. There has been no fund inflow, so it has been continuously declining. The support at $2681 has already been broken, and the next step might very well test the previous low around $2621.
Let's talk about what points everyone should focus on next week?
Bitcoin has two key prices: the upper key level is 85600. If it goes up and holds, bears need to be cautious, as the market may strengthen. If it rises to around 84500-85500 and can't go higher, that may be a false rise, and it will drop back.
The key lower level 80600 is a strong support. If it falls here and quickly bounces back, it’s a good buying point. If it breaks below this level with volume and cannot recover for several hours, then don’t try to catch the bottom, brothers, further down is an endless abyss.
Specifically, how everyone can operate: the safest point for going long is to wait until it drops to around 80600. If it can quickly pull up, consider buying. Alternatively, wait for a strong breakout above 84148 before buying in.
If you want to short, then you need to observe if 83921 breaks and does not bounce back; you can consider shorting. It was previously mentioned in Bai Ge's community that failing to break above the pressure zone of 84500-85500 is also an opportunity to short (more information is available on the community homepage).
If brothers who have already opened positions, the position to run when shorting must be when it stabilizes at 85600; if you don't run, you will basically be taken out. Don’t hold any illusions. For those with long positions, if the market breaks below 80600 with volume and cannot recover, don’t think about withdrawing immediately.
The same principle applies to Ethereum. For long positions, unless it can rise back above 2712 and stabilize, it should not be considered. If you're aggressive, a small position can be tried near 2561 for a rebound, but if it falls below 2523, you must cut losses. For short positions, look for a rebound to around 2794; if it can't go higher, you can consider shorting. The key point is that right now, we mainly watch Bitcoin’s movements; if it can't stabilize, Ethereum will likely follow it down.
The core summary is: everything is referenced to Bitcoin. If it holds above 85600, market sentiment may improve; if it breaks below 80600 and cannot recover, the market will not return. So brothers, don’t rush to heavily bet; wait for the price to reach key levels, see the direction clearly before acting. Whether buying or selling, think ahead about 'if I'm wrong, at what price do I admit defeat,' and execute decisively.
Finally, the appointment of the new chairman Warsh is neither the end of negative news nor the beginning of positive news; it is the starting point of a new round of competition! The collapse of precious metals has already taught us a lesson: relying on policy expectations for speculation ultimately leads to licking blood from the blade; only by focusing on the hard core fundamentals and controlling positions can we survive in this cycle!
Making money in the crypto circle is not about luck, but about mindset and methods! Bitcoin's volatility and Ethereum's fluctuations are temporary; don't rush to cut losses, and don't blindly try to catch the bottom. Follow the signals and be steady! Regardless of the capital amount, staggered investments are the survival rule. As long as you keep your capital, you won’t miss out on opportunities!
Alright, that’s it for today. If you want to get more accurate real-time points, altcoin analysis, and meme market trends, hurry up and join my community. We share operational strategies daily, follow Bai Ge, and even if you don’t get rich quickly, you can slowly build wealth! Remember to like and follow, so you can find me when market changes happen next time!
