The gold market in recent days is destined to be recorded in the annals of precious metal trading. Many people feel that this sudden drop came unexpectedly, but from the perspective of market logic and policy direction, this significant decline has long been foreshadowed and is by no means a random black swan. Starting from the 4620 line, there was a one-sided surge, peaking at 5600 before quickly plunging, and within just two days, it fell back to around 4682.
Next week's market will continue the core pattern of 'wide fluctuations and key level games', with market focus concentrated on effective breakthroughs of support and resistance levels.
On Monday, it is essential to pay attention to the probing situation of key intervals: the primary target for a short-term rebound is the 5000 round number. If it can quickly stabilize above this level, it is expected to oscillate and repair towards around 5100; conversely, if it cannot hold 4900 on Monday and continues to show weakness, one must be wary of the extreme risk of 'sharp rise followed by another deep drop' to avoid being trapped a second time.
Support levels require a tiered defense strategy: the core support levels below are 4600, 4500, and 4000. Once the 4600 support is broken, the market will further test the critical level of 4500; if 4500 cannot be held, the 4000 mark will become the next important defense line.
The risk of a washout must be taken seriously: recent market fluctuations have been severe, and the main players are likely to repeatedly test the strength of support through washout actions. It is important to note that if the price quickly dips to 4500 and stabilizes swiftly, it may become a high-quality window for short-term buying; do not blindly chase shorts.
From the perspective of the 12-hour cycle trend structure, the core logic of medium-term gold upward movement has not been damaged. Next month's market can be divided into two scenarios, balancing optimism and caution.
If the pullback stabilizes and resumes the upward trend. If the price stands firm at key support after a recent pullback, there is still hope to attack the target range of 5600-6000. The pullback process is actually a window for laying out medium-term long positions, which can be based on support levels to seize opportunities and amplify returns through rolling operations.
If the downtrend continues. If prices continue to weaken next month, it is essential to pay close attention to the strength of support at 4500. Once this point is lost, the market will further dip to the 4000 level. In this case, the focus should be on defense, resolutely avoiding blind bottom-fishing, and patiently waiting for clear stabilization signals.
Short-term operating ideas for next week: focus on key points as core anchors, can lean towards long positions above 5000, while turning to a bearish approach below 4600. Each operation must strictly set stop losses, resolutely avoid chasing highs and cutting lows, and mitigate risks from extreme volatility.
Medium to long-term operating ideas for next month: maintain the core logic of 'buying on pullbacks'. If the price retraces to the 4500-4600 range and shows clear stabilization signals, gradually lay out medium-term long positions with targets aimed at the 5600-6000 range, flexibly grasping the take-profit rhythm.