----an overlooked signal: institutions are 'selling BTC, buying gold.'
According to The Block, JPMorgan analysts have provided a set of very interesting and also very harsh judgments:
• Bitcoin Futures: Have approached the 'oversold' range
• Gold & Silver Futures: Have entered the 'overbought' zone
• Whether retail or institutional, there has been a recent tendency to allocate to precious metals rather than Bitcoin
This piece of information, if looked at alone, can easily be regarded as a normal 'institutional viewpoint.'
But if you put it into the current macro environment and cryptocurrency market structure, it is actually asking a more brutal question:
Has BTC really secured its position as 'digital gold'?
One, why is capital flowing from BTC to gold?
Let's start with a counterintuitive fact:
In terms of 'risk prevention', most institutions do not consider BTC as the first choice.
The reason is not complicated:
1️⃣ Volatility remains the original sin.
For institutions, Bitcoin, no matter how scarce or decentralized, will struggle to become a 'stable hedging tool' as long as the annual volatility remains around 50%.
2️⃣ Gold is an 'asset written into the asset allocation model'.
Gold is not a consensus, but an institutional asset:
• Central banks hold.
• Clear regulations.
• Mature accounting treatment.
BTC wins in concept, but hasn't won 'in the table' yet.
3️⃣ When risks rise, funds will return to 'familiar safe havens'.
Even if the returns are lower, certainty is needed.
That's also why:
• BTC futures show signs of being oversold.
• Meanwhile, gold and silver are continuously accumulated, entering the overbought zone.
Two, what JPMorgan is really 'tough' on is not shorting BTC.
What is truly worth reading repeatedly is actually their long-term assumptions about gold.
The logic they provide is:
• Private investors are using gold as an alternative to long-term government bonds.
• The allocation ratio of gold as a 'stock hedging tool' may increase from 3% → 4.6%.
• Under this premise, the theoretical price range for gold can reach $8000–8500 per ounce.
Note:
This is not an emotional judgment, but the result derived from the asset allocation model.
That is to say ----
Gold is being redefined as 'the core hedging asset of the new era'.
Three, what about Bitcoin? Here comes the question.
Here is what I think is the most worth discussing 👇
If in the next few years:
• Gold has absorbed the incremental allocation of 'traditional hedging'.
• Government bonds are no longer the first choice for hedging tools.
• Central banks and institutions continue to increase their holdings of physical assets.
So the question is:
What role does BTC play in asset allocation?
Yes:
• Alternative to gold?
• A high-volatility risk asset?
• 'Alternative assets' under the tech narrative?
If BTC really wants to become 'digital gold', it needs to solve not technical issues, but three real problems:
• Can it reduce structural volatility?
• Can it survive the macro tightening cycle?
• Can it be prioritized for purchase in times of risk, rather than in times of risk appetite?
These three points are still a work in progress.
Four, a realistic reminder for the crypto market.
This is not an article that 'shorts BTC'.
But it reminds us of one thing:
The biggest risk in the crypto market right now is not price volatility, but the ambiguity of role recognition.
If you treat BTC as gold:
• Then you have to accept that it may lose to gold in the short term.
If you treat BTC as a high Beta risk asset:
• Then you shouldn't value it using 'hedging logic'.
And now the most chaotic part of the market is:
Using the narrative of gold to trade the volatility of tech stocks.
Five, a question for you (feel free to argue in the comments).
In the next 3–5 years, which do you tend to believe:
A️ Gold will continue to absorb most of the new funds for 'hedging allocations'.
B️ BTC will truly complete its role switch to 'digital gold' at a critical moment.
C️ The two are not on the same track at all; the comparison itself is wrong.
I'm curious about your answer.
