BTC bounced from the $80.7โ83.4k zone, but the market remains fragile. Bulls defended support, and futures hint at a potential liquidity squeeze toward $93.5k โ but this is not the start of a major move.
๐ง The core issue is liquidity
Glassnode is explicit: without liquidity inflows, rallies donโt last.
The key metric is the realized P/L ratio (90D).
All sustainable rallies in recent years only began once it held above 5. Right now โ it doesnโt.
๐ Pressure beneath the surface
โ Over 22% of BTC supply is at a loss
โ Similar levels were seen in 2018 and 2022
โ The market is nervous: a support break risks a chain reaction
If BTC loses key levels (STH cost basis and true market mean), even long-term holders could start reacting.
๐ฆ No sellers โ for now
According to CryptoQuant:
โ BTC inflows to Binance โ 5.7k BTC per month
โ Thatโs 2ร below normal and the lowest since 2020
Low inflows mean investors are holding, not preparing to sell. This reduces dump risk but does not replace liquidity.
๐ง Bottom line
The market isnโt bearish โ itโs empty.
Without fresh capital, every pump looks the same:
fast up โ exhaustion โ back into range.
๐ Conclusion
Until liquidity returns, Bitcoin is stuck with short bursts, not trends. The real move wonโt start with a candle โ it will start with on-chain numbers.
$BTC
