$BTC

📊 Arthur Hayes: The Next Bitcoin High Depends on the Return of Global Liquidity

🌍 The alert comes from Japan

In the analysis, Hayes pointed out an unusual behavior:

The Japanese yen weakened, Japanese long-term government bond yields (JGBs) rose at the same time

Historically, these movements should not happen together. For Hayes, this is not noise — it is a sign of structural stress in the financial system, indicating that something is out of control.

When these traditional relationships break down, the response is usually one: liquidity injection by central banks.

🟠 Bitcoin and money printing

Hayes gets straight to the point:

"Bitcoin tends to rise along with the expansion of the Fed's balance sheet. It may not happen in the time frame of those trading on a 1-minute chart, but in the long run, scarce assets rise as fiat money is created."

In other words, the more money is printed, the greater the tailwind for Bitcoin and quality cryptos, regardless of the current market sentiment.

⏳ Timing matters

Despite the optimistic long-term view, Hayes makes it clear that he does not enter before confirmation. He noted that:

Bitcoin retreated while the yen strengthened

This usually signals a reduction in global risk in the short term

Therefore, he stated that he will only increase exposure when there is a clear signal in the data:

"If the line of 'Foreign Currency Denominated Assets' on the Fed's balance sheet grows week by week, that is the signal to increase position in Bitcoin."

📈 Practical strategy

Hayes revealed that he closed leveraged positions linked to Bitcoin, such as:

MicroStrategy (MSTR)

Metaplanet (Japanese stocks linked to BTC)

But he made it clear: he intends to repurchase these assets as soon as his thesis is confirmed via official data from the Fed's balance sheet.

🚀 What comes next?

In Hayes' view, the flow would be:

Bitcoin leads the rise

Ethereum follows

Selected DeFi tokens rise as higher beta assets