1. Current price status

  • Latest price: $88,154.17 (as of 2026-01-29 11:00:00 1-hour close).

  • Short-term fluctuations: Compared to the previous hour (10:00) closing price of $87,907.06, there is a slight increase of $247.11, with a rise of approximately +0.28%. However, within the intraday range, the price has significantly retreated from the high of $89,479.66 at midnight 00:00 and is currently at a relatively low point for the day.

  • Volume change: The current 1-hour trading volume is 669.99, significantly lower than the previous hour (10:00) of 1097.35 and also below the volume EMA (20) of 650.68. This indicates that after the price experienced a significant drop earlier, market trading activity has decreased, selling pressure has temporarily eased, and it also means that the willingness of buyers to enter the market is not strong, with the market in a state of reduced activity.

2. Short-term trend analysis

  • Trend judgment: short-term downtrend (correction phase).

    • 1-hour level: The price dropped after reaching an intraday high of $90,600.0 at 01:00, hitting a low of $87,704.0 (10:00). The current price ($88,154.17) has fallen below EMA20 ($89,074.11) and EMA50 ($88,953.21). The moving average system shows a bearish arrangement, with EMA20 below EMA50, and the price below the moving averages, clearly indicating short-term weakness.

    • 4-hour level: The latest 4-hour candlestick (closing at 08:00) recorded a long upper shadow and a long lower shadow in a bearish candle, with a closing price of $88,154.17 far below EMA20 ($88,831.68) and EMA50 ($89,442.60), confirming a corrective trend after a mid-term rebound was blocked.

  • Support and resistance levels:

    • Resistance level:

      • $89,000 vicinity: psychological barrier and the position of EMA20 ($89,074), the primary pressure point for short-term rebounds.

      • $90,600: intraday high, strong resistance zone.

    • Support level:

      • $87,704: intraday low (10:00 data), direct previous low support.

      • $88,168: 1-hour Bollinger Bands lower bound (current 11:00 data), the price is currently closely adhering to this level, and a break below may trigger accelerated declines.

      • $86,825: 4-hour Bollinger Bands lower bound (08:00 data), stronger support reference lower down.

3. Technical indicator analysis

  • RSI (Relative Strength Index):

    • 1-hour RSI: 38.36. The value has fallen below the 50 midpoint, entering a weak area, but has not yet reached the extreme position of oversold (<30). This indicates that bearish forces dominate, but there is still room for downside, or it is in a consolidation bottoming phase.

    • 4-hour RSI: 43.34. Also in a weak area, the indicator is declining in sync with the price trend.

  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):

    • 1-hour MACD: Histogram is 66.23, although it remains positive, the value has significantly converged from previous highs (like 01:00's 331.98). The DIF fast line and DEA slow line are narrowing, and if a death cross forms, it will further confirm the downtrend.

    • 4-hour MACD: Histogram is -90.48, in the negative area, and the negative value has narrowed compared to the previous K line (-118.45). This may suggest that the selling momentum is weakening on the 4-hour level, with early signs of a bottom divergence (price making a new low, but the indicator not making a new low).

  • Bollinger Bands:

    • 1-hour: Bandwidth (bb_width) is 0.03. The price ($88,154.17) is closely adhering to the lower bound ($88,168.38), indicating reduced market volatility, and the price is at the lower edge of the recent volatility range. Typically, a technical rebound may occur after touching the lower bound.

    • 4-hour: The lower bound is at $86,825.05, and the current price is between the middle band ($88,464.73) and the lower band, leaning toward weakness.

  • EMA (Exponential Moving Average):

    • 1-hour EMA20 ($89,074) and EMA50 ($88,953) are both above the current price, forming resistance. In particular, EMA50 is still flattening or slightly declining, indicating that mid-term support is not solid.

  • ADX/DI (Trend Indicator):

    • ADX: 1-hour ADX is 19.25, below 25, indicating that the current market lacks a strong trend, in a state of fluctuation or trendless.

    • DI+: 18.22; DI-: The data contains an anomaly (1165.49), but the normal data before the anomaly shows that DI- is consistently higher than DI+, consistent with the current downtrend judgment.

4. Funding rate and open interest analysis

  • Funding rate:

    • The latest rate (11:30) is 0.0072% (7.2e-05).

    • Interpretation: Although the price is falling, the funding rate remains positive, and it suddenly jumped from 0.0038% at 08:00 to 0.0072%. This usually means that bullish sentiment remains stubborn, or market liquidity/borrowing costs are causing the rate not to reverse with the price. However, caution is needed as high rates may limit further willingness of bulls to enter.

  • Open interest:

    • The latest open interest (11:30) is approximately 8.984 billion.

    • Change trend: Compared to 9:00's 9.076 billion, open interest has decreased by about 0.092 billion within two hours.

    • Comprehensive interpretation (price decline + open interest decline):

      • This is a typical 'long liquidation/deleveraging' signal.

      • The price drop accompanied by a decrease in open interest indicates that there are not large new short positions actively driving the market down, but rather long positions are being stopped out or voluntarily liquidated.

      • This situation usually implies that market sentiment is extremely weak, in a 'surrender' phase. However, it may also suggest that the selling momentum could gradually weaken as long positions exit, and once open interest stops declining and stabilizes, the price may rebound.

5. Comprehensive forecast and suggestions

  • Market sentiment summary:
    The current market is ina short-term correction period, technical indicators are fully turning weak (the price has fallen below the moving averages, RSI below 50). However, the funding rate remains positive and open interest is declining, indicating that this is mainly a 'soft landing' decline caused by long positions actively liquidating, rather than a panic sell-off. The weakening momentum of the 4-hour MACD suggests that the decline may be nearing its end.

  • Trading suggestions:

    • [Short-term operations]: Wait and see or take light positions to speculate on a rebound (high risk)

      • Wait and see: Since the 1-hour trend is still downward, and ADX shows that the trend is not strong, the direction is unclear. It is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize around $87,700, or effectively stay above $89,000 (EMA20) before entering.

      • Speculate on a rebound (counter-trend): Aggressive traders may attempt to take light long positions in the $87,700 - $88,000 range, with stop-loss set below the intraday low of $87,700. The reason is that the price touches the Bollinger Bands lower bound and the 4-hour MACD momentum is exhausted.

    • [Swing operations]: Neutral to bearish

      • If the price rebounds weakly and is blocked in the $89,000 - $89,500 area, consider shorting on rallies, targeting $86,800 (4-hour Bollinger Bands lower bound).

  • Risk warning:

    1. Risk of a sharp drop in open interest: Long liquidation may evolve into a chain reaction of 'liquidation waves', causing the price to instantly break through support.

    2. Indicator divergence: Although there are signs of weakening in MACD, RSI has not reached oversold, and the price may further probe for 4-hour level support.

Conclusion: BTC is in a short-term adjustment phase, long positions are exiting. It is recommended not to blindly chase short positions, to patiently wait for opportunities to go long after the price stabilizes at support levels ($87,700 or $86,800), or to wait for short signals after rebound confirmation is blocked.