1. Current Price Situation
Based on the 5-minute candlestick data from January 29, 2026, 11:20:00, the current price situation of the SOL/USDT trading pair is as follows:
Latest Price Information:
Current Price: 123.22 USDT
Opening Price of the Day: 124.19 USDT
Highest Price of the Day: 125.34 USDT
Lowest Price of the Day: 122.81 USDT
5-Minute Trading Volume: 1,368.34 (relatively low)
Price Performance Assessment:
From the opening price of 124.19 to the current price of 123.22, SOL has dropped about 0.78%, with the price positioned in the lower-middle part of the day's range. The current price is only 0.41 USDT away from the intraday low of 122.81, and there is a pullback space of 2.12 USDT from the intraday high of 125.34.
II. Short-term trend analysis
2.1 Candlestick patterns and trend judgment
Overall trend judgment: rebound repair phase in a downtrend
From a comprehensive analysis of 15-minute and 5-minute candlesticks, SOL/USDT is currently showing a clear high-level pullback trend:
Pullback amplitude calculation:
From the previous trading day's highest price of 128.34 to the current low of 122.81, the maximum pullback amplitude reached 4.3%
From the intraday high of 125.34, it has retraced about 1.66 dollars
Fluctuation range characteristics:
Intraday high of 125.34 forms a short-term resistance level
Intraday low of 122.81 forms an intraday support level
Bollinger Band width has narrowed to 0.02, indicating that volatility is decreasing
2.2 Key support and resistance levels
Type price level description strong resistance 125.34 intraday high, also near the previous high resistance 124.19 daily opening price close to VWAP support 122.81 intraday low strong support 124.78 previous trading day's low critical price level 126.60 previous day's VWAP, long-term bullish-bearish boundary
III. Technical indicator analysis
3.1 RSI (Relative Strength Index)
Latest value: RSI(14) = 33.14
The RSI indicator has issued a clear oversold signal:
RSI below 30 is usually considered oversold, currently 33.14 is slightly above 30 but close to the critical value
Compared to the previous trading day's highest RSI of about 61 (01:30 period), the decline is nearly half
From the 5-minute data, RSI has continuously declined from the morning range of 35-42 to 27-33
Signal interpretation: RSI shows the market is in a weak area, indicating a demand for rebounds, but no clear reversal signal has appeared yet.
3.2 MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)
Latest value: MACD Histogram = -0.36
The MACD indicator shows a clear bearish signal:
The MACD histogram is negative and has a large absolute value (-0.36), indicating that the downward momentum is still being released
From the 15-minute data observation, the MACD histogram has gradually converged from the morning's -0.45 but remains negative
Running below the zero axis indicates that the short-term trend is still under bearish control
Signal interpretation: MACD confirms that it is currently in a pullback correction phase, and bearish momentum has not yet fully released.
3.3 Bollinger Bands
Latest value:
BB Upper: 124.95
BB Mid: 123.91
BB Lower: 122.87
BB Width: 0.02
Bollinger Band analysis shows:
Current price 123.22 is between the lower Bollinger Band (122.87) and the middle band (123.91)
The price is close to the lower band but has not touched it, leaving some space for a slight dip
BB Width is only 0.02, indicating that the Bollinger Bands are tightening, and volatility is decreasing
Tightening patterns usually indicate an imminent breakout
Signal interpretation: The price is running near the lower Bollinger Band, combined with RSI being oversold, technical rebounds may occur in the short term.
3.4 Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
Latest value:
EMA(20): 123.83
EMA(50): 124.43
Current position: 123.22
Moving average system analysis:
Current price 123.22 is below the two moving averages
The 20-day moving average is at 123.83, creating short-term pressure
The 50-day moving average is at 124.43, forming stronger resistance
The two moving averages are in a bullish arrangement, but the price is far below the moving averages, indicating a larger mid-term pullback
3.5 ADX (Average Directional Index)
Latest values: ADX(14) = 43.73, +DI = 42.88, -DI = 0.56
ADX indicator interpretation:
The ADX value is 43.73, above the threshold of 25, indicating a clear trend currently exists
+DI value of 42.88 is far higher than -DI value of 0.56, showing that the upward trend still dominates
It should be noted that although the price has pulled back, the trend strength indicator has not significantly decreased
3.6 ATR (Average True Range)
Latest value: ATR(14) = 0.37
ATR analysis:
The current 14-period ATR is 0.37 dollars, which has narrowed compared to previous days
Based on ATR calculations, the theoretical intraday fluctuation range is approximately 123.22±0.74
Narrowing volatility indicates that the market is consolidating and building strength
IV. Funding rate and open interest analysis
4.1 Funding Rate
Latest value: 0.014% (1.4e-05)
Funding rate trend:
11:15 period: 0.014% (positive value, bulls pay bears)
07:45 period: 0.033% (positive value rising)
23:45 period: 0.060% (higher positive value)
15:45 period: 0.086% (highest point)
07:45 period: 0.024% (stabilized after a drop)
Market sentiment judgment:
The funding rate in the range of 0.01%-0.03% indicates a moderately bullish state, significantly retreating from the peak of 0.086%. The current rate level indicates:
Leverage long positions still dominate, but sentiment has eased
Bull positions' cost has decreased, and market risk appetite has declined
A decrease in the funding rate often indicates that the short-term pullback is about to end
4.2 Open Interest
Latest value: approximately 1.214 billion (1214049612.68)
Open interest change trend:
Latest holdings are approximately 1.214 billion
Compared to the peak of 1.236 billion at 20:00, there has been a decrease
Compared to the 12.23 billion at 07:00, there has been a continuous decrease
Open interest analysis:
Continuous decline in open interest indicates that bulls are closing positions and leaving the market
During the decline, open interest decreased, indicating it is not panic selling
Both bulls and bears are reducing their positions, and the market sentiment is cautious
4.3 Comprehensive sentiment assessment
Indicator value signal interpretation funding rate +0.014% moderately bullish, demand easing open interest 1.214 billion bulls closing positions, leaving the market and observing RSI 33.14 oversold area, technical rebound demand trading volume 1,368 (5 minutes) trading volume plummeted, both buyers and sellers are cautious
Comprehensive judgment: Market sentiment has shifted from extremely optimistic to neutral and cautious, with bulls orderly taking profits, but panic selling has not yet occurred.
V. Comprehensive prediction and trading advice
5.1 Trend forecast
Short term (1-4 hours):
Main trend: Pullback adjustment
Expected fluctuation range: 122.50 - 125.34
Key turning point: 123.50 (whether it can recover this level determines the strength of the rebound)
Mid-term (1-3 days):
Key support levels: 122.00 / 120.50
Key resistance levels: 125.34 / 126.60
5.2 Operational advice
Strategy One: Conservative (Mainly wait and see)
Recommendation: Wait and see, wait for clearer signals
Reason:
RSI is in the oversold area but no bottom divergence signal has appeared
MACD is still below the zero axis, and bearish momentum has not been fully released
Declining trading volume indicates that the market direction is unclear
Bollinger Bands tightening indicates a breakout is imminent, but the direction is uncertain
Risk warning: The market may further dip to the 122.00-122.50 range before rebounding
Strategy Two: Aggressive (Left-side trading)
Recommendation: Build long positions in batches in the 122.50-123.00 range
Position management:
Initial position: 20% position, cost range 122.80-123.00
Add position: If the price breaks below 122.50, add another 20% position
Stop-loss level: 121.50 (breaking all support levels)
Target level 1: 124.50 (EMA50 resistance level)
Target level 2: 125.34 (intraday high)
Profit and loss ratio: approximately 1.5:1
Strategy Three: Stable (Right-side trading)
Recommendation: Wait for price breakout confirmation
Entry conditions:
Closing price breaks 124.50 and stabilizes
Trading volume is more than double the recent 5-minute average
RSI has risen above 45
Stop-loss: 123.50 (below the entry candlestick low)
Take profit: 125.50-126.60
5.3 Risk warning
Market risk: The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and prices may fluctuate significantly in a short time.
Leverage risk: If using leverage, it is recommended that positions do not exceed 30% of total funds
Liquidity risk: Current trading volume is low, and large orders may cause price slippage
Timeliness warning: This analysis is based on candlestick data, and prices may change over time
VI. Summary
Current SOL/USDT is in the bottom formation stage after a high-level pullback
Core conclusion: The price is close to the phase bottom area, suggesting aggressive investors may start to accumulate long positions in batches, while conservative investors wait for breakout confirmation. Regardless of the strategy, it is essential to set reasonable stop-losses to control risk.
