Today's market is a bit like a roller coaster: with the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision approaching, there is fierce tug-of-war between bulls and bears, but ETH has successfully reclaimed the 3000 mark,$HYPE as altcoins rise unexpectedly. Let's break down the market logic, capital trends, and trading ideas together.

The content is based on publicly available data analysis, purely for communication and sharing, not investment advice (suitable for both beginners and veterans, and welcome interactive discussions!)

Part One: Market Overview The overall tone today (January 28) is neutral to cautious, with possible short-term fluctuations and difficulty in making significant breakthroughs. Why do I say this?
Limited support from positive factors: The Federal Reserve's decision is highly expected to maintain interest rates unchanged (3.50%-3.75%, probability over 97%), which can be considered a dovish signal that allows the market to catch its breath. If the dollar weakens, it may indirectly boost the attractiveness of crypto assets as a hedge against inflation.
The suppressive factors are stronger: U.S. national debt has crossed the 38 trillion mark, fiscal deficits and political pressures limit the Federal Reserve's easing space. Coupled with geopolitical tensions (such as the escalating Greenland dispute within NATO), global risk sentiment is low, with funds withdrawing from high-risk assets. The wave of Japanese government bond sell-offs further tightens liquidity, making it difficult for foreign capital to enter the crypto space. In simple terms, the market has digested the 'dovish' expectations of the decision, but the negative impacts of geopolitical risks and liquidity tightening are greater. Unless Powell's speech exceeds expectations of being dovish or the dollar narrative explodes, crypto may follow the stock market's fluctuations, or even slightly test the bottom. It is recommended to observe first, focusing on statements and international dynamics after the decision.

Funds analysis: ETF flows reveal institutional attitudes. The spot ETF is the main battlefield for institutions entering crypto, the latest data (as of January 27) shows funds are adjusting:

Bitcoin ETF: On January 27, it turned into a net outflow of about 147 million USD (IBIT outflow exceeded 100 million, FBTC outflow 44.6 million). This interrupted the inflow momentum of the previous day, with cumulative net inflow still stable at around 56.35 billion USD, accounting for 6.44% of BTC's market value. Interestingly, early 'cash arbitrage' funds are retreating—the futures basis has narrowed to 5-6%, and the arbitrage space is gone. The current flows reflect a pure long position, and institutional confidence appears a bit shaky.

Ethereum ETF: Also turned into a net outflow of 63.6 million USD (ETHA dominated the outflow of 59 million, ETHE outflow 14.6 million), compared to the previous day's inflow of over 11 million, showing significant short-term volatility. However, funds like FETH remain strong, with institutions optimistic about ETH's staking and DeFi potential. Overall, ETF data suggests that institutions are 'switching': from arbitrage to long-term holding, but short-term pressure is significant. On-chain stablecoin reserves are high, and potential buying could intervene at any time.

Part Two: Review of Yesterday's Strategy. Reflecting on the thoughts from January 27, the overall defensiveness is strong: in a volatile market, 1 out of 3 strategies has taken profit, and 2 strategies are awaiting assessment.
The focus is not on the win rate, but on the execution of the rules.
ETH Long Position: Entry range 2800-2870, take profit target 2950 (TP1 has been triggered). Daily high 3033, just a step away from TP2 (3050). Logic: Price accurately retraced to the 200-day moving average support, short positions exhausted + staking buying pressure driving the rebound. Ultimately rose 2.85% to close at 3009, perfectly validating the effectiveness of support.
BTC Long Position: Entry 85000-87500, take profit 90000 (pending verification). Price rebounded from a low of 8628 to 89480, just 0.6% from the target. Safe margin is sufficient, holding the position. These reviews help us accumulate experience: the market always has structural opportunities, but discipline comes first!

Part Three: Today's practical strategy based on the current pattern, providing several structural ideas. Format: Conclusion → Credibility → Key Levels → Plan. Only participate in what you understand, risk is yours to bear.

$BTC (Priority: ★★★★★)
Conclusion: Possible bottom-seeking process, focus on defending the 85k trend line.
Credibility: On-chain STH SOPR drops to 0.965 (short-term holders are deeply in loss, historical bottom signal); 4H MACD bottom divergence + high stablecoin reserves provide buying support. However, caution before the decision may lead to selling pressure or testing below.
Key Levels: Resistance 90500/92000; Support 87200/85000.
Plan: Hold long positions at 87k, move take profit to 90500 (half profit for T1)/92500 (T2). Stop loss at 84200. After T1, move the stop loss to the entry price; if the target is not reached before the decision, consider reducing positions to hedge.

$ETH (Priority: ★★★☆☆)
Conclusion: Repairing at high levels, primarily focusing on BTC profit protection.
Credibility: ETF outflow of 611 million in a single week, significant pressure from institutions. However, TP1 (2950) has been touched, remaining position stop loss moved to 2870 (break-even), aiming for a second opportunity at 3150. Altcoin highlights: HYPE's valuation reassessment. HYPE surged 28% today, reaching a high of 33.77. Driven by: daily trading volume of silver contracts under the HIP-3 protocol breaking 1.2 billion, with 97% of fees used for repurchase and destruction, the platform's internal momentum is overwhelming.

HYPE Strategy (Priority: ★★★★★)
Conclusion: Business explosion leads to elevation, suitable for building positions in batches.
Credibility: The volume of silver perps has proven cross-border potential.
Key Levels: Resistance 35.30; Support 29.50 (50-day EMA).
Plan: Enter on a retracement to 30.50-31.50; target 40.00; stop loss 26.00. The cryptocurrency market changes rapidly; these are merely methodological discussions based on data. Want more real-time signals? Welcome to add the assistant to join the exclusive group (QR code at the end of the article). Remember: Cryptocurrency has high volatility, DYOR (do your own research), and make decisions based on your risk tolerance.
This article does not constitute any investment advice, the market has risks, and investments should be made with caution!
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(Updated on the evening of January 28, 2026, welcome to share and discuss~)