#美联储利率决议
On January 28th, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced its first interest rate decision for 2026, maintaining the federal funds rate in the range of 3.5%-3.75%, in line with market expectations of 97.2%. This decision reflects the Federal Reserve's careful balance between economic downward pressure and the risk of capital outflow.
The signs of weakness in the U.S. economy are evident, with an annualized GDP growth rate of 2.5% for the first three quarters of 2025, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%. The manufacturing PMI has consistently remained below the expansion line. However, the Federal Reserve has not rushed to cut interest rates, with core concerns being the capital outflow shock triggered by previous rate cuts—rate cuts in 2024 had led to a significant drop in the dollar index and an abnormal rise in U.S. Treasury yields.
It is worth noting that while the Federal Reserve is cautious with price tools, it has taken action through quantity tools: purchasing $40 billion in government bonds each month and acquiring $200 billion in MBS from the GSEs, marking the quiet initiation of comprehensive quantitative easing. The policy focus has shifted from interest rate adjustments to liquidity injection, providing support for fiscal expansion while avoiding the short-term pain of rate cuts.
This decision continues the “stop-and-go” rhythm of rate cuts, with the market expecting the next easing to be delayed until mid-year. Powell's statements at the press conference and the nomination of the successor to the Federal Reserve Chair will be key variables for the direction of subsequent policies.
