On January 28, 2026, the cryptocurrency market is at a critical decision point overall, with a bearish trend, but there is a possibility of a technical rebound in the short term. The main feature is fierce competition between bulls and bears in a narrow range, with market sentiment being cautious.
Overview of core market dynamics
· Overall sentiment: The technical outlook is bearish, with capital flowing towards gold and the stock market. The market is sensitive to macro events (such as the potential shutdown of the U.S. government).
· Key range for Bitcoin: $86,000 - $90,000 is the current core battlefield. Heavy resistance above, with buying support below.
· Key range for Ethereum: Contesting around $3,000. Strong resistance above, requires a significant breakout.
· Fund flows: Funds are flowing out of Bitcoin ETFs and shifting towards gold and AI tech stocks. The total supply of stablecoins is shrinking, reducing market 'ammunition'.
Below is a comparison of bullish and bearish signals for Bitcoin and Ethereum:
Bitcoin bullish and bearish signals
· Bullish signal
· Short-term: Rebounded from around $86,000, forming higher lows. Institutions like MicroStrategy are still buying the dips.
· Long-term: After the halving, miner selling pressure decreases, and spot ETFs provide a long-term narrative.
· Bearish signal
· Technical: The 21-week EMA crosses below the 50-week EMA, forming a 'death cross'. The daily chart shows a downward wedge breakout.
· Price: Failed to effectively break through the key resistance of $94,000 - $98,000, forming a failed head and shoulders pattern.
· Capital: Weak inflow of funds to spot ETFs, even showing net outflows.
Ethereum bullish and bearish signals
· Bullish signal
· Short-term: Price has rebounded to around $3,000, with slight intraday increases.
· Bearish signal
· Trend: In a clear downtrend, with consistently lower highs.
· Momentum: Lacking strong reversal candlestick patterns (such as bullish engulfing), buying interest is weak.
· Relative strength: The ETH/BTC exchange rate is at a historical low.
Intraday trading strategy reference
Main idea: Buy high and sell low within the range, and follow the trend after a breakout.
· Bitcoin trading idea
· Range bottom rebound speculation: If the price retests the support area of $86,500 - $87,000 and shows signs of stabilization (like small-scale candlestick reversals), one could consider taking a small long position. Target level looks towards $88,800 - $89,500, with a stop-loss set below $86,000.
· Shorting at the upper range: If the price rebounds to the resistance area of $89,500 - $90,500 (especially close to $90,000) and shows signs of stagnation, consider short positions. Target level looks towards $88,000, with a stop-loss set after effective breakthrough above $91,000.
· Key breakthrough response: A stable hold above $91,500 may trigger short covering, opening up upside potential. Consider taking a small long position. If it breaks down below $86,000 with volume, it may open up a decline towards $82,000 - $84,000, which should be watched carefully.
· Ethereum trading idea
· Following Bitcoin’s movement: The trend generally follows Bitcoin, but may experience greater volatility.
· Key levels: The range of $2,850 - $2,900 can be viewed as intraday support, while $3,050 - $3,100 can be seen as major resistance. Within this range, one can refer to Bitcoin's buy high and sell low strategy, but positions should be more cautious.
Important reminder
· Event focus: Closely monitor the tone of the evening Federal Reserve interest rate decision and the latest news on whether the U.S. government will shut down, as these could lead to significant market volatility.
· Primary principle: In the current market, it is better to miss out than to make a mistake. Any operation must set a stop-loss and control the position size of each trade.
