Analysis Time: 2026-01-28 08:00 (Latest Data Time)
Current Price: 89,287.17 USDT
1. Current Price Status
Latest Price: 89,287.17 USDT
Price Change:
Compared to the closing price of 89,250.00 USDT from 1 hour ago (07:00), it has increased by 37.17 USDT (+0.04%).
Compared to the closing price of 88,353.97 USDT from the last 24 hours (January 27 08:00), it has increased by 933.20 USDT (+1.06%).
Compared to the high of 96,846.75 USDT from a longer period (data starting January 15 21:00), it is currently in a rebound phase after a correction, down approximately 7.8%.
Volume Change:
The current hourly trading volume is 104.67, significantly reduced compared to the previous hour's 421.36, indicating a weakening in buying interest during the price increase, or that the market has entered a wait-and-see mode.
4-hour trading volume is 2417.35, decreasing compared to the trading volume of the previous few 4-hour periods (e.g., 3647.91 at 00:00 on January 28).
2. Short-term trend analysis
1-hour trend: oscillating upwards.
The price rebounded from the low of 87,546.58 USDT at 01:00 on January 28 and is currently near recent highs.
In terms of candlestick patterns, a long bullish candle appeared at 04:00 on January 28 (closing at 89,396.16), followed by sideways consolidation, with clear resistance above.
4-hour trend: a rebound in a downtrend.
Although the price has rebounded in the short term, the overall structure is still in a downtrend channel since January 15. The 4-hour EMA20 (88,549.47) is still below the EMA50 (89,505.67), indicating that the medium-term trend has not yet fully reversed.
Key levels:
Resistance level:
89,523.16: previous high on the 1-hour chart (07:00 on January 28), also the highest price of the day.
89,510.21: upper Bollinger Band, current price is approaching this resistance line.
Support level:
88,569.90: EMA20 support, there should be strong support if it retraces to this level.
88,370.48: EMA50 support.
87,274.61: lower Bollinger Band, serving as a deeper defense level.
3. Technical indicator analysis
EMA (Exponential Moving Average):
On the 1-hour chart, the price (89,287.17) is above the EMA20 (88,569.90) and EMA50 (88,370.48), and the EMA20 has crossed above the EMA50, forming a golden cross pattern, with a well-formed short-term bullish arrangement.
On the 4-hour chart, the price is between the EMA20 and EMA50, with resistance from the EMA50 (89,505.67), causing the rebound to be blocked.
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
1-hour RSI: 61.0. It is in a neutral to strong area and has not entered the overbought zone (>70), indicating that bulls still have room to maneuver, but caution is needed for pullback risks.
4-hour RSI: 55.6. Similarly, it is in a neutral area, lacking clear unilateral signals.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):
1-hour MACD: histogram is 156.13, positive and expanding, indicating that short-term bullish momentum is strengthening.
4-hour MACD: histogram is -438.54, negative and shrinking (down from the previous period of -499.74), suggesting a depletion of bearish momentum, with potential for bottom divergence or golden cross.
Bollinger Bands:
The 1-hour Bollinger Band width (bb_width) is 0.03, in a relatively contracted state. The price is running close to the upper band, suggesting that volatility may soon increase, and if it can effectively break through the upper band, it will accelerate upwards; otherwise, it will return to the middle band.
4. Capital rate and open interest analysis
Capital rate:
The latest rate is 0.0062% (6.2e-05).
The rate is positive and at a low level (usually 0.01% - 0.05% is high), indicating that market bullish sentiment slightly prevails, but leverage sentiment is not extreme, and the market is relatively healthy, with no signs of extreme greed.
Open Interest (OI):
Current open interest is 9.09 billion USDT (9090807342.57).
Open interest has slightly decreased compared to the peak of 91.81 billion at 04:00 on January 28, but overall remains at a historical high.
Capital flow trend: during the process of the price rebounding from 87,500 to 89,200, open interest slightly decreased, which may indicate that some shorts are stopping loss and exiting (pushing the price up), or bulls are taking profits. This is usually a manifestation of 'volume-price divergence', and caution is needed for insufficient upward momentum.
5. Comprehensive forecast and advice
Comprehensive forecast:
BTC is currently in a technical rebound phase, with bullish dominance on the 1-hour level, facing strong resistance near 89,500 (previous high and 4-hour EMA50).
The 4-hour trend remains bearish, and the current rebound can be seen as a correction to the downtrend. Only if it can effectively break through 89,600 will a larger level of reversal be possible.
Given that the RSI has not yet reached overbought levels and the MACD momentum is increasing, there is still potential for a short-term rise, but the transaction volume is insufficient and OI is slightly decreasing, indicating that the upward space may be limited.
Operational suggestion:
Aggressive traders: can try to go long with a light position near the price pullback to 88,500 (around EMA20), with a stop loss set at 88,000, and target at 89,500.
Steady trader: Suggest to wait and see. The current price is approaching the resistance zone, and the 4-hour trend has not yet reversed. It is safer to wait for a valid breakthrough above 89,600 and a retest confirmation before entering. If the price stagnates around 89,500 and shows a long upper shadow, consider shorting with a light position.
Risk warning:
Pay attention to the pressure of the 4-hour EMA50 (89,505); if it cannot break through for a long time, there may be a significant risk of a pullback.
Open interest is high, and the market is sensitive to leveraged liquidations, so pay attention to the potential chain reaction caused by large liquidations.
On a macro level, pay attention to the overall capital flow in the cryptocurrency market and major news developments.
