Cryptocurrency Market Analysis
Political Factors Dominate Sentiment: Continued escalation of US political uncertainty: the risk of a government shutdown, controversies surrounding the Federal Reserve's independence, Trump's tariff threats against the EU/South Korea, and his hardline actions against Venezuela and other regions have led to a decline in global risk appetite.
Increased geopolitical tensions (Middle East, Latin America, and EU-US relations) have weakened the dollar, but risk assets have been sold off, with funds flowing into traditional safe-haven assets such as gold ($PAXG , breaking through $5000/oz) and silver ($XAG ).
Uncertain Crypto Regulatory Outlook: The probability of the Clarity Act passing has dropped to approximately 50%, and the potential for a midterm election upset has raised concerns that Trump-era friendly policies may be reversed.
Other Key Pressures: Continued net outflows from ETFs (BTC/ETH ETFs saw outflows exceeding $100 million in the past few days), driven by institutional profit-taking and the lingering pressure of tax losses.
Complex Macroeconomic Environment: Weakening expectations of a Fed rate cut, persistent inflation, and geopolitical conflicts have boosted safe-haven demand, but crypto has not fully benefited from the "digital gold" narrative, instead resembling more of a high-beta risk asset.
Market panic is rising, with the Fear & Greed Index entering the fear zone. Leveraged liquidations have exceeded $500 million, and low liquidity is amplifying volatility.
Short-term Outlook: The market is in a wide-range, defensive mode. BTC has short-term support at $87,000-$88,000 and resistance at $89,000-$90,000. ETH is weaker; watch the $2,800-$3,000 range. Fund rotation is evident: gold/equities are strong, while crypto is under pressure. Strict risk management is recommended; wait for clearer geopolitical and policy signals before adding to positions. In the long term, multipolar financial demand may benefit BTC strategic allocation, but uncertainty remains high in the first half of 2026. Proceed cautiously; survival is key! (Contact information: #加密市场动态 #地缘政治
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