1. Current Market Sentiment: Dislocation of Safe-Haven and Risk Assets
Recent market sentiment is clearly split. On one hand, geopolitical uncertainties are rising, and governments around the world are increasingly willing to allocate to physical gold; on the other hand, Bitcoin, as the narrative of 'digital gold,' is facing a trust test in the short term, resembling a risk asset highly correlated with U.S. stocks, especially the Nasdaq.
In this context, gold and silver have previously seen significant capital inflow, but from a technical perspective, precious metals have entered a seriously overbought zone, making it difficult to maintain this strong state for the long term, whether on a weekly or daily basis. In contrast, after a series of pullbacks, Bitcoin now has the foundational conditions for a technical rebound in the short term.
2. The daily structure of Bitcoin: The key significance of $86,000
From the daily structure of Bitcoin, the previous trading day closed with a volume-filled spinning top, with a relatively short upper shadow and a significantly increased trading volume, even surpassing the levels of last Thursday, Friday, and Sunday. This is very crucial, indicating that there has been a relatively clear active buying support in the $85,800–$86,000 area.
This price range is not formed randomly, but is an area that was repeatedly confirmed during earlier fluctuations, thus possessing certain characteristics of 'not being able to fall' in the short term. However, it needs to be emphasized that:
Once this area is effectively broken down, the space below will quickly open up, making $80,000 or even lower not unimaginable.
3. Trend and 123 Rule: Rebound does not equal reversal.
From a structural perspective, Bitcoin's previous uptrend line has been broken. According to the 123 rule, if the price continues to form lower lows after breaking the trend line, the market will enter a trend down phase.
The current rebound can be more reasonably understood as:
A technical repair during the downtrend, rather than a trend reversal.
Whether viewed from the daily, 4-hour, or weekly structure, the market is still in a generally bearish high-level environment, with short-term rebounds mainly used to release panic and repair oversold indicators.
4. Rebound target range: $90,000 is the first life-and-death line.
If the rebound continues to advance, the first target area is around $90,000. This is a very important technical position:
The lower edge of the bear market rebound channel.
The overlap area of the downtrend line and parallel highs
The dense transaction area that could not break through during the previous consolidation
In the 4-hour level, this area has repeatedly become a price resistance point, so significant selling pressure is expected here.
If the price continues to surge, then $92,000–$93,000 and $94,000–$95,000 will form the second and third levels of pressure.
These positions are more suitable for considering medium to short-term short positions rather than chasing longs.
5. Capital and ETF: Selling pressure is drying up.
From the perspective of capital flow, some noteworthy changes have occurred recently:
· The overall market showed a slight net inflow over the weekend and Monday.
· The net inflow speed of Bitcoin on exchanges has significantly slowed down.
· In the past 24 hours, there have been obvious signs of a decrease in selling pressure.
This means that after experiencing a round of concentrated panic, the short-term 'people who want to sell have mostly sold,' and once buying pressure slightly increases, it is easy to trigger a rebound.
At the ETF level, although the data has not been fully counted, it can be confirmed that there has not been an extreme net outflow situation similar to the previous week, which also provides conditions for a short-term rebound.
6. Macro and sentiment: News is often already priced in.
On the macro level, whether it is tariff games, geopolitical conflicts, or expectations of government shutdowns, as long as it is information widely known in the market, it is often already digested by prices in advance.
What needs to be cautious is:
The attribute of Bitcoin as a 'U.S. risk asset' is being re-strengthened in the market's perception, which causes it to often drop faster when U.S. stocks fall, while it may not benefit synchronously when U.S. stocks rise.
Therefore, from a medium-term perspective, Bitcoin still cannot completely rule out the risk of further declines.
7. Summary of trading strategies: A rebound is an opportunity, but the direction still leans bearish.
Considering the technical, capital, and macro environment, the more reasonable strategy currently remains:
$85,800–$86,000: Short-term can bet on a rebound.
$90,000 and above: Prioritize looking for short opportunities.
If the price strongly breaks through and stabilizes at the key pressure level, then adjust the view in a timely manner.
The market always has unexpected movements, but having a plan, stop-loss, and adaptable strategy is the only way to strive for certainty in uncertainty.
