Fed Watch is a market tool and concept used by traders and investors to track expectations around the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions.
It reflects probabilities of rate hikes, cuts, or pauses, mainly derived from Fed Funds futures. Platforms like the CME FedWatch Tool visualize these expectations ahead of every FOMC meeting.
Why it matters:
Shapes market sentiment across stocks, bonds, crypto, gold, and FX
Helps traders position ahead of FOMC decisions
Sudden shifts in Fed Watch probabilities often trigger high volatility
In short, Fed Watch = real-time market psychology on interest rates.
When probabilities move, markets usually move with them 📊💥
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