By the end of January 2026, Bitcoin has dropped from its high of 97k at the beginning of January to around 86k, resulting in a negative monthly return.
Many people are asking: Is the bull market over? My judgment: Not yet, it's just a healthy deep washing phase. Three core reasons:
Macroeconomic risks dominate: The new chair of the Federal Reserve has not been determined + potential government shutdown risks in the U.S., global funds are risk-off, and gold has even surged to 5000 dollars, putting natural pressure on BTC.
Excessive leverage has been cleared: Over the past two weeks, the total amount of liquidations has exceeded 1 billion USD, and high-leverage long positions have been ruthlessly harvested. Now the market is finally starting to deleverage, and volatility is instead a precursor to bottoming.
Differentiation in institutional behavior: ETF net outflows have slowed, but some DAT (Digital Asset Trust) selling pressure remains; on the other hand, low interest rate expectations + the benefits of Trump policies are still favorable in the medium to long term.
From a technical perspective: 86k-88k is a critical support level (monthly level + Fibonacci 0.618 retracement), as long as it does not effectively break below 85k, this adjustment is likely to end in the range of 88k-92k, then continue to push towards $100,000. In summary: this is not the end of the bull market, but a break in the middle of the bull market + a super washout.
Real large-scale opportunities are often hidden when others are most fearful.
How low do you think $BTC will go this round? Predictions in the comments.
