After an aggressive drop $PEPE to the area 0.000000461, the price formed a V-shaped rebound and transitioned into local consolidation above the short-term EMA(7/25) on the 15M–1H. The market is playing out the classic 'hand-off' scenario: panic selling from below is replaced by careful accumulation, but the entire structure is still developing under the pressure of descending averages of the higher TF. On the 4H, the price is only testing the zone of the first serious bearish check — the area of the nearby EMA(25), where it is often decided whether the rebound turns into a full-fledged reversal or remains merely a technical breather. RSI is exiting the oversold territory and is holding in a neutral to elevated zone, which seems more like a recovery after a shock than the start of a sustained bullish trend.
The basic long scenario according to $PEPE is justified when holding the price above the area 0,000000475–0,000000480, where local pullbacks and support from short-term averages occur — returning to this zone provides a clearer risk/profit than chasing candles at local highs.
• TP1: area 0,000000491–0,000000495 — retest of the local high and the first logical zone for partial fixation.
• TP2: movement towards 0,000000505 with a confident breakout of 4H resistances and weakening pressure from the descending EMAs.
• TP3: aggressive target in the area of 0,000000520+ if the current bounce turns into a full-fledged trend reversal with the liquidation of shorts.
The protective stop logically should be hidden under 0,000000461, as a drop below will update the minimum movement and completely break the 'reversal from the low' scenario, turning the observed bounce into a regular bearish rally within a downtrend.
The main rule of such phases according to $PEPE — do not confuse the emotional bounce after a sharp drop with the beginning of a sustainable bullish cycle: confirmation of the reversal always occurs not on the first green candles, but on how the price behaves when meeting key resistances.
What factor will become the key marker of the real strength of this bounce: holding the price above the zone 0,000000475–0,000000480 or an aggressive breakout of the area 0,000000505 with an increase in volumes?