In 2025, both the A-shares and the US stock markets experienced explosive growth in the energy and metals sectors, while BTC decoupled from energy costs in the short term, falling into a 'surrender cycle' in the mining industry, which is a vicious cycle. The rise in energy costs did not support the coin price; instead, it compressed miner profits, leading to sell-offs for liquidity, thereby continuously suppressing spot prices.
Similarly, the explosive growth of AI is impacting the underlying structure of BTC. When the same kilowatt-hour of electricity is used to drive H100 chips for AI inference, the economic value generated is far greater than that produced by driving Antminer machines for hashing. Consequently, the arbitrage in computing power will gradually shift from 'hashing' to 'inference', prompting many large mining companies to gradually transform.
The migration of computing power will lead to a short-term diversion of funds, but in the long run, a state of 'computing power capping' will emerge, gradually reducing the growth rate of mining difficulty, making it easier for pure BTC miners in the network to gain market share and profits.
Overall outlook: The 'surrender cycle' is not over yet, and 'computing power migration' is ongoing. There is not much we can expect - Trump's promised sovereign reserve; the integration of AI and Crypto; a more relaxed monetary policy and the arrival of a super cycle. Of course, days will always get better, with downward adjustments in mining difficulty, continuous inflow of institutional ETF funds, and improvements in macro liquidity expectations, the market bottom is becoming increasingly solid.
$BTC
