Let’s first talk about the current situation~

The big pancake broke through the barrier of $94,200, reaching up to nearly $97,500 at one point, and now it's fluctuating around $96,000-$97,000. Auntie is even more fierce, standing above $3,380 for the first time in the new year, becoming the leader of the surge.

Why did it suddenly rise?

1. The macro dad has given some sugar: The latest inflation data (CPI) from the U.S. has finally cooled down, and the market feels that there might be a chance for interest rate cuts to continue in 2026. For crypto, which is highly 'risk appetite,' this is definitely a strong shot in the arm.

2. Big funds are quietly buying: Don’t be fooled by the market fluctuations, this week, ETFs have actually seen a substantial inflow of money (about $1.2 billion). This indicates that institutional big shots haven’t stopped and are continuing to accumulate.

3. Regulatory 'good news' comes: The U.S. suddenly presented a draft bill called (CLARITY), intending to establish rules for cryptocurrencies. As soon as the market heard 'it might become clear,' the sentiment surged, and BTC broke through the key resistance level, along with blowing up a bunch of short contracts (about $700 million), which is called 'short squeeze', making the rise even more vigorous.

But! Don't celebrate too early; there is a 'pit' right in front:

The exciting (CLARITY) bill has encountered a hitch! Some clauses in the draft (such as requiring DeFi to record user information) are too controversial, and even the owner of Coinbase publicly opposed it, leading to the cancellation of the scheduled vote.

What does this mean? Simply put, the expected 'regulatory good news card' cannot be played out at the moment. The market is like a sprint that needs to catch its breath, and it is very likely to enter a high-level oscillation mode in the next few days to digest this news.

What should we focus on in the next few days?

Bitcoin's posture: Can it hold above $97,000? Or will it be pushed back to $95,000 or even lower? This is the key to short-term strength and weakness.

The market's sentiment: Every morning, take a look at whether the U.S. Bitcoin ETF has a net inflow or outflow; this reflects real attitudes.

Follow-up on the bill: Will the bill be modified or reintroduced? Any new news could trigger fluctuations.

Remember two key numbers:

Going up, $100,000 is the next psychological barrier;

Going down, $94,200 is an important support; if it breaks, it may need to adjust for a while.

Overall, the market just surged with good news, but now the follow-up momentum of the good news is somewhat extinguished. So, in the next few days, it is highly likely to be in high-level oscillation, with both bulls and bears wrestling here. The trend will not go straight up; it will be more complicated.