Monero (XMR) is retreating from the $800 zone, after reaching a significant cycle high, amid clear profit-taking and reduced leverage. The correction, so far, does not invalidate the overall trend, but it does redefine the key levels to watch.
What's really happening?
After an aggressive expansion in recent weeks, derivatives data shows a healthy deleveraging:
📊 Open Interest dropped by nearly 11% in 24h, falling to $267M
🔄 Typical signal of traders closing positions after an extended rally
⚠️ It is not panic: it is cleaning up excess risk
Liquidations confirm the adjustment:
In 12h: long liquidations > shorts
Indicates technical correction, not trend change
The funding rate remains positive (0.0149%), suggesting that the bullish bias still dominates, albeit with less euphoria.
Technical analysis: levels that matter
XMR struggles to consolidate below $710
Long wick candles reflect short-term distribution
A weak daily close opens the door to a correction towards $640
📍 $640 is not a breakout, it is:
Rebalancing zone
Key technical support
Logical level after a vertical move
Meanwhile, the macro structure remains favorable:
✅ EMA 20 > EMA 50 > EMA 200
Primary trend clearly bullish
The bias remains positive as long as XMR holds dynamic supports
Professional market reading
This does not seem like a definitive peak of the cycle, but rather a necessary pause after a rally driven by:
Renewed interest in privacy coins
Structural momentum of the crypto market
Capital rotation towards assets with clear narrative
The market is transitioning from euphoria to evaluation, not from optimism to fear.
Key scenarios
🔵 Base scenario: consolidation between $640–$710 before a new bullish attempt
🔴 Real risk: clear loss of $640 with volume
🟢 Dominant bias: bullish as long as the structure holds
Conclusion
The XMR correction is technical, not structural. The market is adjusting risk, not abandoning the narrative. In strong cycles, opportunities do not arise in euphoria, but in these phases of controlled cooling.
