Goldman Sachs has forecast that global equities will continue to rise in 2026, with an expected return of 11%, including dividends, over the next 12 months. The rally will be supported by earnings growth and broad economic expansion.
As traditional markets continue to rise, a central question emerges: Will digital assets follow the trajectory of equities, or will they chart their own course?
Goldman Sachs revises 2026 global equity outlook
Goldman Sachs’ 2026 global equity outlook points to further gains for major indices. According to the report, the global economy is expected to grow across all regions next year, with an estimated global GDP increase of 2.8%.
The U.S. Federal Reserve is also expected to deliver further moderate policy easing this year, strengthening the macroeconomic backdrop. In this context, Peter Oppenheimer, chief global equity strategist at Goldman Sachs Research, suggests that a major market downturn is unlikely in the absence of a recession.
"We believe that returns in 2026 will likely be driven more by fundamental earnings growth than by rising valuations. Our analysts' 12-month global forecasts indicate that stock prices, weighted by regional market value, are expected to rise 9% and deliver 11% return with dividends, in U.S. dollars (as of January 6, 2026). Most of this return is driven by earnings," wrote Oppenheimer.
The company expects that stock gains in 2026 will likely not replicate the strong rise seen in 2025. This signals a more balanced return going forward.
"Although stocks had strong performance in 2025… returns did not come in a straight line. Stocks performed poorly early in the year, with the S&P 500 falling nearly 20% from mid-February to April, before recovering. The strong rally in global stocks has led to historically high valuation levels across all regions—not just in the U.S., but also in Japan, Europe, and emerging markets," the report states.
The report referenced targets of 7600 for the S&P 500 (with a total return of 11%), 625 for STOXX 600 (7% return), 3600 for Japan's TOPIX (4% return), and 825 for MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan (12% return).
The analysis suggests that stocks are now in the optimism phase of the market cycle. This phase began with the bear market during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. The team explains that this late stage of the cycle is often associated with higher valuations, pointing to potential upside relative to their main forecast.
The report also addressed the growing attention toward AI-related stocks. Analysts noted that market focus on artificial intelligence remains strong, but emphasized that this does not necessarily mean we are in an AI bubble.
Is Bitcoin still correlated with the S&P 500 in early 2026
While traditional stocks enter 2026 with expectations of continued growth, increasing attention is turning toward how the crypto market will evolve. Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency, has generally shown positive correlation with the S&P 500, although it has also experienced periods of clear independence.
Looking at data from the past year, CryptoQuant shows that BTC's correlation with the S&P 500 was mostly positive. At the same time, correlation briefly moved in a negative direction between September and October, again in November, and twice in December.
"In the second half of 2025, the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 fell sharply. This was not a temporary divergence, but the result of structural changes in market behavior," noted an analyst.
The analyst believed this was due to several factors:
Spot Bitcoin ETFs shifted demand from short-term trading to allocation-driven inflows.
The risk of high leverage decreased as derivatives markets reduced exposure to BTC margins.
Macroeconomic liquidity rotated toward commodities and precious metals and bypassed crypto.
Short-term, stock-based traders exited the market, leaving behind a base of long-term holders.
Bitcoin's price was more influenced by internal supply dynamics than by sentiment in the stock market.
According to the latest data from CryptoQuant, correlation has turned negative again and currently stands at -0.02. This suggests that in early 2026, Bitcoin is not being traded similarly to a risky stock holding.
Nevertheless, correlation regimes have proven unstable in previous cycles, meaning a renewed linkage to stock markets remains possible. In such a scenario, a sustained rise in stock markets could once again provide a boost to Bitcoin, allowing it to benefit from a broader risk-on sentiment.
