Goldman Sachs has forecast that global equities will continue to rise in 2026. The bank expects a return of 11 %, including dividends, over the next twelve months. The increase is supported by earnings growth and broad economic expansion.
As traditional markets continue to climb, a key question becomes clear: will digital assets evolve in step with equities, or will they chart their own path forward?
Goldman Sachs shares its 2026 forecast for global equities
Goldman Sachs 2026 forecast for global equities points to continued rise in major indices. The report predicts global economy growth across all regions next year, with global GDP expected to increase by 2.8 %.
The US Federal Reserve is also expected to make cautious easing moves in monetary policy later this year, strengthening the favorable macro environment. Peter Oppenheimer, head of Goldman Sachs Research, therefore says a major stock market crash is unlikely as long as no recession occurs.
"We believe that 2026 returns will primarily be driven by actual earnings growth, not by rising valuations. Our analysts' forecast for the next twelve months shows that stock prices, weighted by market value, are expected to rise by 9%, and deliver a total of 11% including dividends, in USD (from January 6, 2026). Most of the return will come from earnings," wrote Oppenheimer in the report.
At the same time, the company states that the stock rally in 2026 will be calmer than the strong rally we saw in 2025. This means we could see a more cautious return going forward.
"Despite strong stock performance in 2025... the rise did not go straight up. Stocks developed weakly at the beginning of the year, with the S&P 500 falling nearly 20% between mid-February and April, before the market reversed. The strong global stock rally has led to valuations now being historically high, not just in the US but also in Japan, Europe, and emerging markets," writes the report.
The report outlines targets for the S&P 500 at 7,600 (equivalent to 11% total return), STOXX 600 at 625 (7% return), TOPIX in Japan at 3,600 (4% return), and MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan at 825 (12% return).
The analysis shows that stocks are currently in the optimism phase of the market cycle. This phase began after the bear market during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. The team sees this late optimism as a phase where rising valuations create potential upside risks for their primary forecasts.
The report also highlights increasing attention on AI stocks. Analysts note that the market is currently heavily focused on artificial intelligence, but they emphasize this does not mean there is an AI bubble.
Is Bitcoin still correlated with the S&P 500 at the beginning of 2026?
As traditional stocks enter 2026 with hopes of continued growth, interest in how the cryptocurrency market develops increases. Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency, has typically had a positive link to the S&P 500, although it has also had periods when it moved independently.
Looking at data from the past year, CryptoQuant shows that BTC's co-movement with the S&P 500 has been clearly positive. However, the correlation turned briefly negative in September and October, again in November, and twice in December.
"During the second half of 2025, Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 dropped significantly. This was not a temporary change, but the result of structural shifts in market behavior," notes an analyst.
The analyst links this to several factors:
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have shifted demand from short-term trading to long-term inflows.
Leverage risks have decreased as derivative markets have reduced BTC margin exposure.
Macroeconomic liquidity has flowed into commodities and precious metals, but has bypassed crypto.
Short-term market participants linked to the stock market have exited, while long-term investors have stayed.
Bitcoin's price has become more influenced by internal supply conditions than by sentiment in the stock market.
The latest figures from CryptoQuant show that the correlation has now turned negative again, standing at -0.02 as this text is written. This implies that Bitcoin will not be traded as a risky equity alternative at the beginning of 2026.
However, correlation patterns have been unstable in previous cycles. Therefore, there is a possibility that Bitcoin may once again follow stock market developments. If stock markets rise over an extended period, this could benefit Bitcoin, as most investors would then be willing to take on more risk.
