XRP has been sharply declining since its January 6 peak, dropping nearly 15% in just six days. Although multiple support levels have already been broken and momentum remains weak, something unusual is happening amid the selling pressure—confident investors have begun buying at a rate never seen before since September 7.
Nevertheless, although XRP's key price zone remains intact and demand is quietly building under pressure, this has created a rare divergence between price movement and on-chain behavior
The heavy drop in XRP depends on a key trend line
Selling pressure intensified after XRP failed to reclaim the 200-day EMA at the January 6 peak. The EMA, or exponential moving average, gives more weight to recent prices and is commonly used to assess the strength of short- and long-term trends. As long as prices remain below key EMAs, sellers typically maintain the upper hand
After the peak, XRP first lost the 100-day EMA, then the 50-day EMA, and is now trading near the 20-day EMA, which has become the last line of defense for the short-term trend
This level is significant because it often acts as the divider between controlled consolidation and deeper, more pronounced declines
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A similar pattern occurred earlier in December, when XRP dropped below the 20-day EMA on December 4, causing prices to fall roughly 15% within a few days. This explains why the current level is so critical
If this level can be held, the price structure will remain intact. However, a clear loss (closing below the level) would increase the risk of further downward movement
The strongest buying pressure at lower prices since September, but limited to certain holder groups only
Despite technical damage, buying pressure at lower prices from long-term investors—i.e., those with confidence—is intensifying
This is evident from the HODLer net position change indicator, which tracks whether long-term investors are increasing or decreasing their coin holdings. A positive value indicates accumulation, while a negative value indicates coin distribution
The strongest accumulation right now is coming from confident holders, not from large whale groups overall. The HODLer net position change indicator shows that wallets added approximately 62 million XRP on January 9, followed by nearly four times that amount purchased each day in the next two days
On January 10 and 11, holders were able to absorb approximately 239 million XRP and 243 million XRP respectively, even as prices continued to decline. Therefore, this event represents the strongest two-day consecutive buying pressure in XRP since September 7
While whales remain cautious, only small whales holding between 1 million and 10 million XRP have shown activity. Their total balance increased from 3.52 billion XRP to 3.53 billion XRP, or about 10 million XRP added. At current prices, this represents approximately $20.5 million in purchases
This is not broad accumulation but rather targeted buying for self-protection. Small whales are entering the market as prices approach key levels. However, large whales remain on the sidelines. This imbalance explains why XRP found support but still struggles to rebound strongly
XRP's supply clusters and price levels explain the underlying confidence
This confidence closely aligns with XRP's cost-basis structure
Supply clusters form at levels where large amounts of coins were previously purchased at similar prices. These zones often become support levels because holders close to their cost basis rush to buy when prices fall to protect their positions rather than accept losses
There are two large supply clusters below the current price. The first is between $2.00 and $2.01, with approximately 1.9 billion XRP accumulated
The second cluster is between $1.96 and $1.97, with an additional 1.8 billion XRP accumulated. This price level explains why selling pressure has slowed despite weak momentum
As long as these clusters remain intact, XRP's price can form long lower wicks and attempt to stabilize further. If XRP manages to reclaim the 20-day EMA near $2.04, it will be the first sign that this support level is still effectively protecting the price
From an uptrend perspective, XRP must hold $2.21 and then $2.41—the high point of January 6. Breaking above $2.41 would bring $2.69 back into play and re-establish the uptrend structure
Downside risk remains, as a break below the $2.01 level would open the path to $1.97 (the next supply cluster) and then $1.77. Notably, the supply groups on-chain still show supporting levels that correspond closely with XRP's price chart
Current confidence in XRP is not driven by momentum or large whale groups, but by price structure—since the 20-day trend line remains intact and a dense supply cluster supports the price from below. As long as these two factors remain, investors waiting to buy on dips are always ready to re-enter
