XRP has been in a steep freefall since the peak on January 6th, with the price dropping nearly 15% in just six days. Several support levels have already broken, and the mood remains weak. However, something unusual is happening under selling pressure: whale accumulators are buying coins at a rapid pace, a trend not seen since September 7th.
Key XRP price ranges remain intact, and demand is gradually building under pressure. This creates a unique divergence between price movement and behavior on the blockchain.
XRP's rally depends on one key trendline
The selling wave accelerated when XRP failed to rise above the 200-day EMA level at the January 6th peak. EMA, or exponential moving average, places more weight on recent prices and is commonly used to assess short- and long-term trends. When the price remains below key EMA levels, sellers generally maintain control.
Since the peak, XRP first lost the 100-day EMA support, then the 50-day EMA support. Now the coin hovers near the 20-day EMA, which is the last short-term trend support.
This level is significant because it often separates managed corrections from stronger downward moves.
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A similar situation was seen at the beginning of December. When XRP lost the 20-day EMA level on December 4th, the price dropped by about 15% over the following days. This historical data makes the current level especially significant.
If the level holds, the structure remains. However, a clear breakdown (daily close below the EMA) could still continue the free fall.
The dip buying is strongest since September—but only from selective holders
Despite technical pressure, buying by long-term investors, i.e., accumulators, has strengthened.
This is visible in the HODLer net position change, which tracks whether long-term wallet balances are increasing or decreasing. When the value is positive, holders are accumulating coins. If negative, they are selling them.
The strongest accumulation comes from accumulators, not from broad whale activity. The HODLer net position change shows that about 62 million XRP were added to wallets on January 9th, and nearly four times that amount on each of the following two days.
On January 10th and 11th, holders acquired approximately 239 million and 243 million XRP respectively, even as the price continued to decline. This is the strongest two-day dip buying since September 7th.
Whales remain cautious. Only smaller ones, holding 1–10 million XRP, have been active. Their combined balance increased from 3.52 billion to 3.53 billion XRP, an increase of about 10 million XRP. At current prices, this represents approximately $20.5 million in purchases.
This is not broad, accumulating buying, but rather targeted, defensive buying. Smaller whales are stepping in near key levels, but larger players are still waiting. This imbalance explains why XRP is currently receiving support, but a strong rebound still has to wait for itself.
Supply clusters and XRP's price levels explain the accumulation
This accumulation is closely tied to XRP's acquisition cost structure.
Supply clusters form around areas where large amounts of coins were previously bought near the same price levels. These zones often act as support levels, as investors near break-even frequently buy during dips to protect their positions rather than sell at a loss.
Two major supply clusters are located just below the current price. The first is in the $2.00–$2.01 range, where approximately 1.9 billion XRP has accumulated.
The second cluster is located in the $1.96–$1.97 range, where another 1.8 billion XRP has been bought. These levels explain why selling pressure has slowed, even though sentiment remains weak.
As long as these clusters remain intact, XRP's price can form long lower wicks and aim for stabilization. If the 20-day EMA level near $2.04 is regained, it would be the first sign of the defense working.
Upward, XRP must reclaim $2.21 first, and then $2.41, which is the January 6th peak. If $2.41 is exceeded, $2.69 becomes possible again, and the structure will turn bullish once more.
The risk of the pullback remains. A clear breakdown below $2.01 would open the path to $1.97 (the next supply cluster), and then to $1.77. It's worth noting that there are also active support levels in the on-chain supply cluster on the XRP price chart.
XRP's stability does not come from sentiment or large whale investors, but from structure. The 20-day trend line has not been fully broken, and the dense supply clusters are directly below the price. As long as these two factors hold, buyers during dips are ready to step in.
