XRP has experienced a sharp decline since reaching its peak on January 6th, falling approximately 15% in just six days. Several support levels have already broken, and momentum is currently weak. However, an unusual situation is unfolding behind the selling pressure: confident buyers are entering rapidly for the first time since September 7th.
The key XRP price range is still holding. Despite price pressure, demand is quietly forming. Price movements and on-chain behavior are rarely diverging.
XRP's sharp drop hinges on the key trendline
After XRP failed to reclaim the 200-day moving average (EMA) from its January 6th peak, selling pressure accelerated. EMAs are frequently used to assess short- and long-term trend strength by assigning more weight to recent prices. When price remains below a key EMA, selling dominance is typically maintained.
Since the peak, XRP has lost the 100-day EMA and subsequently broke below the 50-day EMA. It is now moving around the 20-day EMA, which has become the last short-term trend support line.
This range is important because it often serves as a benchmark for identifying corrections and deeper downward movements.
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A similar situation unfolded in early December. When XRP broke below the 20-day EMA on December 4th, it dropped by about 15% within days. This history explains why the current range is so important.
If this zone remains intact, the structure is still alive. However, a clear breakout (based on daily closing prices) could lead to an extended sell-off.
Largest buying since September... Concentrated among some holders
Despite technical weakness, long-term investors—confident buyers—are intensifying their low-price buying activity.
This can be confirmed through the HODLer net position change indicator, which tracks whether long-term holding wallets are increasing or decreasing their coin balances. A positive value indicates accumulation by holders, while a negative value indicates selling pressure.
The strongest accumulation is coming from confident buyers—specifically a particular group of holders, not the general whale group. According to the HODLer net position change indicator, wallets added approximately 62 million XRP on January 9th. In the following two days, nearly five times that amount was added.
On January 10th and 11th, approximately 230 million XRP and 243 million XRP were additionally purchased respectively. Buying continued despite the price drop. This is the strongest two-day accumulation at the bottom since September 7th.
In contrast, whales are maintaining a cautious stance. Only small whales holding between 1 million and 10 million XRP have been active in trading. Their holdings increased from 3.52 billion XRP to 3.53 billion XRP, an increase of about 10 million XRP. This translates to approximately $20.5 million in buying volume at current prices.
This is not broad-based accumulation. Only defensive buying has been detected in specific ranges. Small whales are entering key price levels, but large investors remain on the sidelines. This imbalance explains why XRP finds support but struggles to achieve strong rebounds.
Supply cluster, XRP price... Confident explanation
This confident buying is closely linked to the XRP buying cost structure.
Supply clusters form in areas where large volumes were previously purchased at similar price levels. These zones typically act as defensive lines. Many holders who bought near these levels tend to enter bottom buying to avoid losses.
There are two major supply clusters directly below the current price level. The first is in the $2.00 to $2.01 range, where approximately 1.9 billion XRP has been accumulated.
The second cluster is located in the $1.96 to $1.97 range. Approximately 1.8 billion XRP was additionally purchased. This is why selling pressure has slowed down despite strong selling pressure in these levels.
As long as these supply clusters remain intact, XRP price may attempt stabilization with a long lower tail. A breakout above the 20-day moving average near $2.04 would be the first signal that this defense is working.
Looking upward, XRP must break above $2.21 and $2.41—the January 6th high—respectively. If it surpasses $2.41, $2.69 will become the next target, and the market structure could shift back into a bullish phase.
Downside risk remains. If the price clearly breaks below $2.01, $1.97 (the next supply zone) will be exposed, potentially opening up to $1.77. It's also worth noting that on-chain supply clusters are acting as active support levels on the XRP price chart.
XRP's confidence does not come from momentum or large whales. It stems from the structure. The 20-day trendline has not been fully broken, and a dense supply cluster exists just below the price. As long as these two conditions hold, there remains a high likelihood of new bottom buyers entering.
