Analysts have assessed that Bitcoin has entered a prolonged bear market over the past month. However, five key data points show that the market is undergoing a mid-term correction following the record-breaking surge by the end of 2025.
According to on-chain and ETF data, selling pressure is gradually weakening. It's not due to long-term investors exiting, but rather late entrants liquidating their positions while strong holders are absorbing the supply.
This phenomenon is significant because it indicates that panic selling is being replaced by bottom buying during the mid-cycle adjustment phase.
ETF outflows, only short-term sales visible
The U.S. Bitcoin ETF experienced its strongest selling pressure since its launch in the first half of January. On January 2 and 5, two strong inflows combined to bring over $1.1 billion in capital in just one day, but afterward, rapid capital outflows occurred from the ETF.
Over the following three trading days, more than $1.1 billion in capital exited ETFs.
This flow is typical panic selling. During the October–November rally, many investors entered ETFs as Bitcoin prices approached all-time highs. But when prices failed to sustain above $95,000, most of these positions turned into losses. Risk managers and short-term investors quickly reduced exposure, leading to continued redemptions.
Most importantly, this was not a prolonged, months-long outflow typical of a bear market. It was a rapid and concentrated wave of selling. Such selling tends to be driven by weaker investors who first liquidate their positions and exhaust themselves.
Recent data shows the ETF fund flow has stabilized, suggesting the forced selling phase is nearly over.
After such ETF panic selling in the market cycle, there is often a period of consolidation and bottoming out, eventually leading into a rebound phase.
ETF purchase price at $86,000…price support
According to CryptoQuant's ETF loss chart, the average purchase price of Bitcoin held by ETFs is close to $86,000. This means most ETF buyers who entered after the October peak are now near breakeven.
This level is very important. When prices remain near the average purchase price of the largest new buyer group, selling pressure generally decreases.
Investors who have already realized losses have left the market. Those remaining tend to hold despite small losses, waiting for a rebound.
Historically, this purchase price range has acted like gravity. When Bitcoin prices fall significantly below this level, bottom buying emerges; when prices rise sharply, profit-taking increases. Currently, Bitcoin is slightly above this ETF average purchase price.
Thanks to this, the market has maintained a stable flow between $88,000 and $92,000—even after billions of dollars in ETF funds have exited.
The ETF purchase benchmark acts as a structural support level, which is typical during intermediate adjustment phases and rarely appears during bear market breakdowns.
BlackRock, Coinbase transfer…reflecting repayment structure
According to blockchain data, BlackRock transferred 3,743 Bitcoin and 7,204 Ethereum to Coinbase Prime. On the surface, this looks like institutional selling.
However, this is inevitable due to the ETF structure. When investors redeem ETFs, the fund must deliver Bitcoin to authorized participants. This settlement and custody is handled by Coinbase Prime.
In the past week, BlackRock moved Bitcoin and Ethereum for this reason.
This movement is driven by liquidity demand. BlackRock is not determining direction or making sell decisions. It is purely processing withdrawals in line with investor redemption timing. This fluctuation precisely matches the period in early January when large amounts of capital exited ETFs.
In a bear market, capital tends to steadily decrease over several months. In this case, we see short-term investors exiting, and ETFs settling their trades.
This suggests it is not a structural outflow of institutional funds, but rather a market adjustment process.
Coinbase premium…U.S. institutions catching their breath
Coinbase premium index dropped sharply into negative territory on January 12. This means Bitcoin prices on Coinbase have become cheaper compared to overseas exchanges.
Coinbase primarily serves U.S. institutions and high-net-worth individuals as clients. A positive premium indicates active buying from U.S. capital.
Now that the premium has turned negative, we can see that buying pressure has slowed.
The current market stabilization is reasonable. ETF investors have suffered significant losses. A large amount of capital is waiting to re-enter once fund flows stabilize.
However, insufficient buying pressure does not necessarily mean large-scale selling. Bitcoin spot is not being massively injected into Coinbase. It's simply that buying interest is not concentrated at high prices.
During intermediate cycle adjustments, institutional investors temporarily step back from the market, and weaker investors are cleared out. When prices stabilize, they return. This pattern is visible in today's Coinbase premium.
Exchange net outflows, supply digestion confirmed
The 30-day average net inflow into Bitcoin exchanges has reached its highest level since October last year. More Bitcoin is moving into exchanges, which typically signals selling pressure.
This context is important. The main source of this supply is the liquidation of ETF positions and the cleanup of redemptions by arbitrage desks. Long-term holders are not rushing to sell.
Despite such large inflows, Bitcoin prices have not collapsed. They are holding steady around the $90,000 range. This shows that investors outside the ETF market are absorbing the supply—this includes global traders, overseas funds, and long-term buyers.
Even if selling appears in the market, if prices hold, it means capital is being redistributed from weaker to stronger investors. This process typically occurs during the intermediate adjustment phase.
What is the Bitcoin price outlook?
All five data points reach the same conclusion: Bitcoin is going through the process of digesting ETF supply. Late entrants have exited, while long-term holders remain.
As long as Bitcoin holds the $86,000 ETF purchase price, the structure remains solid. In that case, prices can consolidate at the bottom and attempt to retest $95,000.
If ETF inflows turn positive again, a test of $100,000 in the second half of this quarter becomes possible. Deeper declines would require additional ETF redemptions.
Data so far indicates this phase is already weakening.
