High win rate does not equal profitability

In the world of trading, the most common and stubborn pain is the intense resistance one feels when facing losses.

Many try to overcome this by 'adjusting their mindset,' only to find little improvement. This isn't a matter of willpower, but rather a lack of fundamental cognitive understanding. Without knowing what 'correct' means, one cannot grasp the essence of losses at a higher level, so the instinctive reaction is denial and avoidance.

This cognitive gap often leads people down a seemingly reasonable path: obsessively studying win rates. People naturally believe that as long as the win rate is high enough, profits will follow automatically. However, this is a subtle mathematical illusion.

There is no direct causal relationship between win rate and long-term profitability. A system with only a 30% win rate can still be highly resilient if discipline is strictly maintained, allowing each winning trade to cover several losses. Conversely, a strategy with a 90% win rate might lose all its accumulated small profits in a single unexpected, low-probability adverse move.

Thus, the real distinction lies in whether one can cognitively 'accept' that losses are inevitable. 'Not accepting losses' means the door to proper trading has not yet opened; 'not accepting unplanned large losses' is a technical issue concerning risk management capability.

Once you truly accept that 'losses are an inherent part of the process,' your perspective undergoes a fundamental shift: losses are no longer enemies to be eliminated, but costs that can be planned and managed.

Thus, the central question changes from "How can I avoid losing?" to:

"How much controlled cost am I willing to pay for one attempt?"

"How can I design a process to ensure this cost does not spiral out of control?"

"Can my system, after multiple small losses (costs), capture one opportunity large enough to cover all costs and generate profit?"

This is no longer about mindset cultivation, but about clear strategy construction and the art of risk management. You begin to plan your losses like an entrepreneur budgets for expenses, and set your stop-losses like an engineer installs safety valves. You no longer fight the emotions tied to losses, but learn to coexist with them—and use them as essential fuel propelling you toward profitable outcomes.

$币安人生 $我踏马来了