Bitcoin (BTC) Market Core Analysis: The 91630 USD Support Becomes a Key Point of Contention

1. Market Snapshot

• Recent Trend: After breaking above 126000 USD in October, the price entered a downward phase, continuously oscillating within the 90,000–100,000 USD range, with particularly intense fluctuations around 91630 USD;

• Current Price Performance: On January 7, 2026 (not yet closed), the quoted price was approximately 91,000 USD, with a daily drop of 3%, retesting the core support level;

• Special Context: From January 1 to 3, political turmoil in Venezuela triggered a surge in global risk-averse sentiment, sparking a short-term exceptional price rally.

2. Core Technical Logic

1. Fibonacci Support Structure

Key levels show a clear tiered support structure, with 91630 USD serving as the critical Fibonacci 0.618 golden ratio point, currently the focal point of bulls versus bears:

• Strong Support: 91630 USD (0.618 level), if held, could mark a key turning point for a rebound;

• Secondary Support: 87347 USD (Fibonacci 0.5 level), corresponding to the lower edge of the previous consolidation range;

• Extreme Support: 83064 USD (Fibonacci 0.382 level), representing the ultimate downside target.

2. Bollinger Bands (BOLL) Signal

Daily Bollinger Bands have formed a clear resistance pattern:

• Middle Band Repeated Resistance: Previous attempts to break above have all failed; a brief breakout on January 2 was quickly reversed, and the middle band is now a potential pivot point between support and resistance;

• Upper Band Resistance Active: The price hit the upper band in the previous two trading sessions, met resistance, and directly triggered the recent technical correction.

3. Indicator Signals

The CCI indicator has entered the overbought zone (even extreme overbought) due to the price rise over the past week, indicating a high probability of a technical correction, and short-term bullish momentum has weakened.

3. Fundamental Drivers

The escalation of political situation in Venezuela has increased demand for global safe-haven assets, serving as the core catalyst for the January rally, making this rebound special rather than purely technical in nature.

4. Conclusion and Actionable Strategy

• Optimistic Scenario: If the 91630 USD (Fibonacci 0.618) support holds, a rebound is highly likely, and attention should be paid to whether the Bollinger Band middle line can be broken;

• Pessimistic Scenario: If support is breached, the price will sequentially test 87347 USD (Fibonacci 0.5) and the daily Bollinger Band middle line, with extreme cases potentially reaching 83064 USD (Fibonacci 0.382);

• Trading Reminder: With CCI in overbought territory and a technical correction confirmed, long positions should be handled with caution, and strict stop-losses are recommended.