As we move into the first week of 2026, the compass of expectations has clearly begun to indicate the direction of the Federal Reserve in its upcoming meeting at the end of the month. Current data paints a "cautious wait" scenario that the market has already started to price in.
📊 Reading in the language of numbers:
The federal monitoring tool indicates a clear divide in expectations:
83.4% in favor of stabilization: keeping the interest rate at (3.50% - 3.75%).
16.6% in favor of a slight cut: by 25 basis points.
🔍 Why is cash leaning towards "stabilization"?
The market currently prices the Fed's realism for two fundamental reasons:
•Inflation stubbornness: Despite the decline, reaching the 2% target still requires time, and the Fed fears "inflation rebound" in case of early cuts.
•Labor market resilience: Employment stability gives the Fed the luxury of time to wait without fear of immediate recession.
💡 Expected impact on crypto (BTC & Altcoins):
•Stabilization scenario (currently priced): It could lead to relative stability leaning towards calm, as investors will seek other catalysts away from interest rate decisions.
•Next opportunity: The true strength of the market will show in Powell's "tone"; any hint of a cut in March could ignite a new altcoin rally (Altseason).
Advice for followers: In such circumstances, "liquidity is king". Watch the $90,000 levels for Bitcoin as a major support before the decision.
⚠️ Warning: This content is educational and informational only and does not constitute financial advice. Investing in cryptocurrencies is highly risky; make sure to do your own research.
#Fed #interestrates #macroeconomy #BinanceSquare #CryptoTrading2026
