Brothers, 2026 has just begun, and BTC is already on a 'roller coaster' - on January 1, it crashed suddenly, liquidating 160,000 people, then immediately rebounded to 90,000 on the 3rd. After retreating over 30% from the high of 126,000 in December 2025, it's stuck in the range of 85,000 to 95,000, causing many to panic: Can it stabilize this year? Is the halving logic still effective?
Old Wu directly gives the conclusion: 69,000 is the old high that's now a thing of the past. In 2026, BTC must play above this level, but the explosive growth is hard to replicate. Oscillation between 80,000 and 130,000 is the main theme! The pricing logic has changed; previously, we looked at halving, now we need to focus on 'institutions + compliance'!
Currently, BTC is driven by institutions👨💼
The global BTC ETF scale has broken 120 billion USD. BlackRock's IBIT has hoarded 800,000 coins, crazier than MicroStrategy! In October 2025, during a big drop, retail investors cut losses while whales secretly accumulated. The BTC balance on exchanges hit a new low since 2018, with all chips locked in cold wallets—there’s less and less supply on the market, and it will never drop 80% easily again! 85,000 is the safe entry price recognized by institutions, providing solid support.
Three main scenarios for 2026: Primarily fluctuations, with surprises and shocks.
1. Neutral scenario (60% probability): Fluctuations between 80,000-130,000🤔
The Federal Reserve will cut rates twice but won't flood the market; regulatory issues will not be a one-size-fits-all approach. Institutions will buy at 80,000-90,000 and sell at 120,000-130,000. We will just follow the trend.
2. Optimistic scenario (20% probability): Sprint to 150,000-180,000💰
Trigger conditions: the U.S. (Clarity Act) is implemented, or the Federal Reserve unexpectedly cuts rates 4 times! Now institutions are shifting from gold to crypto, global M2 has broken 130 trillion, and when funds overflow, it will skyrocket. JPMorgan is looking at 170,000～
3. Pessimistic scenario (20% probability): Drop to 60,000-70,000⚠️
Risk points: the Federal Reserve resumes rate hikes, stock market crashes, large holders reduce their holdings. But 70,000 is the break-even price for most people; institutions holding over 20% will support the market, and it’s hard to drop below 60,000!
The pricing logic has completely changed! It used to rely on guessing, now it relies on rules.🚫
- In the past, we looked at emotional supply and demand; now we focus on ETF fund flows. Inflows mean increases, outflows mean decreases, even more accurate than K-lines.
- In the past, it was a wild asset; now 75 countries report taxes globally, and the U.S. FASB regulates accounting, with volatility aligning with gold;
- In the past, valuations were based on guesswork. Now, JPMorgan and Citibank use models to calculate, with clear target prices.
Old Wu's practical advice: Don't chase the highs; it's better to pick up the bargains.😭
1. Control your position at 1%-5%, don’t go all in;
2. Buy in batches at 80,000-85,000, sell slowly at 120,000-130,000, add positions below 70,000, and stop loss at 65,000;
3. Look less at short-term trends; check ETF funds and regulatory dynamics once a month, and follow the big trend.
BTC in 2026: The era of making money by luck is over; we are entering a new era of 'institutions + compliance'! Fluctuations are exhausting but offer opportunities for buying low and selling high, more stable and suitable for long-term layout than before.
Brothers, do you think BTC can reach 150,000 this year or will it drop below 80,000? Let's discuss in the comments and see who understands!👇#比特币2026年价格预测 #btc $BTC
