#ETH（二饼） Now what we see as three "double bottoms" can actually be understood from a trading perspective as follows:
The first two: a false bullish structure, while the last one: may actually be the real bottom.
But the prerequisite is that it must be confirmed.
Why is there a "repeated drawing of double bottoms"? In a bearish or sideways market, the main players like to do three things:
Repeatedly probe the same area (making you think "this is very strong")
Each time give a little rebound (making you believe that "double bottom is established")
Wait until the chips are sufficiently gathered, then choose a direction.
So you will see: it looks like a double bottom, but each rebound gets lower and weaker.
This is not a trend reversal, this is a chip exchange + emotional consumption.
A real "double bottom" only looks at three points (missing any one does not count):
These three conditions can directly filter out 90% of false double bottoms.
① The second bottom cannot be weaker; preferably, it should not break the previous low, or if it does, it quickly recovers. If the second probe shows obvious increased volume and the body breaks down, then it’s not a double bottom, but a false signal before a breakdown.
② The rebound must "stand firm"; it cannot just spike and crash. It should at least hold the 2930–2950 range, rather than currently: spiking up → then completely giving back the gains, not holding = funds do not recognize.
③ The key neck line must be “confirmed by the closing price,” for the pattern to truly establish itself, not relying on shadow lines,
but rather on the closing price.
If the 4-hour or daily candlestick closes above the neck line and retests without breaking, without this step, what you see is only “looking like a double bottom.”
How to understand the current ETH market? Spiked 100 points → completely retraced, high points and low points overall shifted down, momentum weakened.
This is more like: the shape of a double bottom + a bearish consolidation structure.
In other words: the shape is there, but the conditions are not met.
A more stable approach is: in the bottom area 2885–2835, you can try a small position long, just betting on a rebound, not betting on a reversal. If you really want to trend long, wait until it stabilizes above 2950 before chasing.
