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Family, urgent warning! Still hoping for a 'Santa Claus rally' for Bitcoin? Wake up! According to the 4 years of painful data I've compiled, the next few days are not a Christmas gift of money, but a 'Grinch trap' for the bulls — from December 25 to the end of the year, it can be called the 'annual slaughterhouse' for Bitcoin bulls!
As someone who has been in the cryptocurrency market for 8 years, I have seen too many retail investors go bust during the year-end frenzy, watching their accounts go to zero and feeling helpless. Today, I will share my bottom-line data and practical advice to help you avoid this likely fatal drop and protect your hard-earned money this year!
Blood and tears data review: For four consecutive years, the year-end drop is a 'curse'.
Don't talk to me about 'New Year market' or 'holiday benefits'; data doesn't lie. I have scoured the year-end trends of Bitcoin over the past four years and discovered a chilling pattern: from December 25 to 31, there is almost a precise window for declines, and each drop is worse than the last!
In 2021, Bitcoin was directly suppressed at its peak, plummeting 10.11% within a few days. Countless retail investors who chased the highs were liquidated, and the Christmas holiday turned into a 'clearing nightmare.' In the 2022 bear market, although the drop was only 1.87%, the despair of continuous declines was enough to wear down everyone's patience. In 2023, it was even worse; it completed a round of uniform decline right on December 31, firmly trapping those who tried to bottom out halfway up the mountain. In 2024, it was the harshest; Bitcoin reversed from a high of $100,000, plummeting 8.32%, directly wiping out all leveraged long orders, and the liquidation amount in the last few days of December set a new high for the year!
Currently, Bitcoin is stuck at $87,000, with only 48 hours left before entering this 'high-risk window.' According to historical patterns, it is highly likely to experience a 5%-10% drop next, meaning Bitcoin could very well drop to the $78,000 - $82,000 range before the New Year. This is not an alarmist statement; it is a probability built on real money!
The logic behind it: Why does it always drop at the end of the year? It's not a curse; it's the game of human nature and capital.
Many people think that the year-end drop is a 'market curse,' but behind it are all institutional tricks. I will break down two core reasons for you; after watching, you will understand:
First, institutions are on holiday, and liquidity dries up. From Christmas to New Year's Day is the Western annual long holiday, and large institutions' traders are all on vacation, causing market liquidity to drop to a freezing point. At this time, a small amount of capital can move the market; short-selling institutions just take advantage of this window to crash the market, harvesting the long positions of retail investors. After all, a market without institutional support is like a garden without walls, left to be slaughtered.
Secondly, the retail investors' 'New Year fantasy' has become a target for harvesting. Every year at the end of the year, there are always retail investors fantasizing about the 'New Year market', thinking that the market will rise in the new year, frantically chasing highs and adding leverage. This sentiment is precisely captured by institutions, which first slightly raise the market to lure in buyers, and then, after retail investors are fully invested, they sell off, directly causing the leveraged long positions to be liquidated. What you think is a 'New Year bonus' is actually a trap set by the institutions.
Retail investor survival guide: If you don’t do these three things, you will likely be harvested.
Seeing this, some must be panicking: 'What should I do now? Should I clear my positions?' Don’t panic. As someone who has experienced multiple year-end crashes, I’ll give you three practical suggestions; if you follow them, you can likely avoid this wave of risk:
First, immediately reduce leverage; don't gamble your life savings on the market. For those still adding leverage, quickly reduce it to within 1x, and it’s best to completely clear out leveraged positions. Historical data has told us that the end of the year is a peak time for liquidations; what you think is a 'big bet' could very well make your earnings for the year go to zero. Remember, preserving your principal is more important than anything.
Second, set stop-losses; don’t hold onto false hopes. If you really don’t want to clear your positions, make sure to set a stop-loss level. Based on a 5%-10% expected drop, it is recommended to set the stop-loss around $80,000. Once it falls below this, exit decisively; don’t think about 'bottom fishing.' Many retail investors end up being overly optimistic, thinking 'it will rebound after dropping,' and end up getting deeper into the trap, ultimately being liquidated.
Third, don’t chase the highs; patiently wait for the bottoming window. Now is not the time for FOMO (fear of missing out), but for patient waiting. After the year-end decline ends and institutions return after New Year's Day, it won’t be too late to consider entering the market. I have seen too many retail investors chasing highs at the end of the year, only to be stuck for half a year, missing out on the real market after the year.
A soul-searching question at the end: By the end of this year, will you be the one getting harvested or the survivor?
To be honest, the crypto market has never lacked opportunities, but what it lacks is a mindset of respecting the market and the ability to control risks. This wave of decline at the end of the year is both a risk and a filtering process — filtering out those who understand risk management and are patient, while eliminating those who blindly follow trends and are overly optimistic.
I dare say that by the end of this year, those who can control their hands and do proper risk management will likely be able to eat the real market next year. And those who are still shouting 'bet everything' and 'New Year rebound' may find themselves in tears, looking at their accounts when the New Year bell rings.
Follow me; I will update real-time Bitcoin market analysis daily to help you avoid risks and seize opportunities. Remember, in the crypto market, those who survive until the end are always those who understand risks and are patient. See you next year; I hope by then, you can still smile and chat with me about the market!
