$BTC
Is Bitcoin going to 'hibernate' again?
Analyst: The primary demand for this bull market has already been 'squeezed' out.
On December 24, CryptoQuant's research director Julio Moreno said: Bitcoin has now entered a bear market, mainly because - no one is buying, the demand is too weak.
Since the beginning of 2023, Bitcoin has actually experienced three major waves of buying:
The first wave came from the funds entering after the approval of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF;
The second wave was triggered by market speculation following the results of the U.S. elections;
The third wave was driven by the so-called 'Bitcoin treasury companies' bubble.
However, starting from early October 2025, the growth in demand has fallen below the long-term trend line. This means: in this round of market, most of the new buying that can be mined has already entered, and there is no new money or new funds willing to take over; the few major pillars that originally supported the price are slowly disappearing.
By the fourth quarter of 2025, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has even turned from a 'big buyer' into a 'big seller', with a net sell-off overall, and holdings have decreased by about 24,000 BTC. This is the complete opposite of the crazy accumulation situation in the fourth quarter of 2024.
At the same time, those addresses holding 100–1000 BTC (which are usually considered to be mainly ETFs and 'treasury companies'), are growing at a rate lower than the long-term trend. This situation is very similar to the weakening demand seen at the end of 2021 and before the bear market in 2022.
From a technical perspective, the price of Bitcoin has already fallen below the 365-day moving average. Historically, this line is a crucial long-term watershed:
• Staying above it often indicates a bull market;
• Falling below it usually means officially entering a bear market.
Now, Bitcoin has fallen below this line, indicating that from a broader trend perspective, the market environment is shifting from a bull market of 'more ups than downs' to a bear market phase of 'more downs than ups'.
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