Post
Bluechip
ยท
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BullishMarkets donโt crash because everyone is terrified.
They crash when everyone is euphoric and certain it canโt crash.
Fear & Greed at 18, โextreme fear,โ just 11 trading days after S&P 500 record highs is not complacency, it is panic at altitude.
Historically, every major bottom since 2008 has lived in this zone of humiliation - sub-20 readings into the GFC, 2011 debt ceiling, 2016 growth scare, March 2020 - where headlines screamed โthis time is differentโ and forward returns were built on other peopleโs capitulation.
What this gauge really tells you:
โข Positioning is already defensive.
โข Optionality is being sold by the scared to the patient.
โข The crowd is paying a premium for yesterdayโs fear while pricing in zero probability of upside surprise.
Extreme fear at all-time highs is not a โtop is inโ signal.
It is a regime-test: either the world is truly breaking, or this is one of those rare moments when the market pays you to think instead of feel.
Question is, which side of that trade do you want to be on?
$BTC
They crash when everyone is euphoric and certain it canโt crash.
Fear & Greed at 18, โextreme fear,โ just 11 trading days after S&P 500 record highs is not complacency, it is panic at altitude.
Historically, every major bottom since 2008 has lived in this zone of humiliation - sub-20 readings into the GFC, 2011 debt ceiling, 2016 growth scare, March 2020 - where headlines screamed โthis time is differentโ and forward returns were built on other peopleโs capitulation.
What this gauge really tells you:
โข Positioning is already defensive.
โข Optionality is being sold by the scared to the patient.
โข The crowd is paying a premium for yesterdayโs fear while pricing in zero probability of upside surprise.
Extreme fear at all-time highs is not a โtop is inโ signal.
It is a regime-test: either the world is truly breaking, or this is one of those rare moments when the market pays you to think instead of feel.
Question is, which side of that trade do you want to be on?
$BTC
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