đ Current Snapshot
Bitcoin is trading around $106,000 USD.
Technical indicators: RSI is ~61 (suggesting mild bullish momentum) and the MACD is in a âBuyâ zone, though some indicators still hint at caution.
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đ Key Technical Levels & Themes
Support: The ~$99,000 zone was recently retested and held, which is a positive sign of underlying strength.
Resistance: Price had been rejected near ~$116,000, indicating that that level is an important barrier.
Trend: Moving averages (50-day, 100-day, 200-day) are mostly pointing positive â the âBuyâ signals dominate among moving averages.
But: Some analysts warn that if support at ~$99-$100 K breaks, a deeper correction could follow.
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đ§ What to Watch
Breakout scenario: If Bitcoin clears above ~$116,000 with strong volume, it could head toward ~$120-130K (some analysts target ~$130K-$135K by year end).
Risk scenario: Failure to hold above ~$100K support could lead to a drop back toward ~$90K or lower, as some foresee.
External factors: Institutional flows (ETFs), macroeconomic trends (interest rates, regulation) remain key. The classic 4-year cycle narrative may be under pressure.
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â My View (not financial advice)
Given the current setup:
The momentum is cautiously positive: Bitcoin seems to have stabilized after a pullback, and the $99K support holding is a positive sign.
But the upside isnât guaranteed: it needs a convincing breakout to resume a strong uptrend.
For now, a moderate bullish bias seems reasonable â Iâd expect consolidation between roughly $100K and $120K in the near term, with potential upside if breakout occurs, or risk of a drop if support fails.