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⏳ The $BTC Halving Cycle: Understanding the Most Important Rhythm in Crypto

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Bitcoin’s price has historically moved in a distinct four-year cycle, anchored by its built-in supply shock: the Halving. Here’s how this rhythm has played out and what it means for investors.
⚙️ The Engine: The Halving

Approximately every four years (210,000 blocks), the reward for mining Bitcoin is cut in half. This scheduled reduction in new supply is Bitcoin's core monetary policy.

📜 Historical Cycles (Post-2012)
Cycle 1 (2012-2016): Halving (Nov 2012). BTC price: ~$12 → Peak (Nov 2013): ~$1,150
+9,500% run-up to peak.
~80% bear market drawdown.

Cycle 2 (2016-2020): Halving (Jul 2016). BTC price: ~$650 → Peak (Dec 2017): ~$19,700
+3,000% run-up to peak.
~84% bear market drawdown.

Cycle 3 (2020-2024): Halving (May 2020). BTC price: ~$8,600 → Peak (Nov 2021): ~$69,000
+700% run-up to peak.
~77% bear market drawdown (to ~$15,500).

🔄 The Typical Cycle Phases:
Accumulation (Post-Bear): ~1 year+ after the peak. Weak sentiment, low volatility.
Pre-Halving Rally: ~6 months before the halving. Growing anticipation.
Re-Accumulation (Post-Halving): ~150 days after the halving. Sideways chop as supply shock builds.
Parabolic Bull Run: Supply shock meets surging demand. Mainstream FOMO.
Bear Market: Distribution, decline, and reset.

🧮 The Diminishing Returns Pattern
Notice the trend? Each cycle has seen:
A lower percentage gain from halving price to cycle peak.
A similarly brutal bear market drawdown (~75-84%).
A significantly higher floor for the next cycle.
This is the path of a maturing, high-growth asset gaining scale and stability.

📈 The Current Cycle (2024-2028?)
Halving: April 2024.
Pre-Halving Price: ~$65,000 (unprecedented).
Key Difference: For the first time, the cycle is powered by massive institutional capital via Spot ETFs, creating a new, permanent source of demand that interacts with the halving's supply shock.
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