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Bitcoin & Ether Outlook as Fed Rate Cut Looms

25 bps cut expected Wednesday, but surprise 50 bps could ignite a massive rally

By Omkar Godbole | ~2 hours ago

Key Points

Downside fears in $BTC and $ETH have eased, with options skew showing recovery.

A 25 bps Fed cut on Sept. 17 is widely expected; a surprise 50 bps cut could spark explosive gains in BTC, ETH, and SOL.

Bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) are regaining momentum as traders shake off downside concerns ahead of Wednesday’s U.S. Federal Reserve rate decision. Options market data shows a strong rebound in call/put skews, pointing to renewed confidence.

BTC’s seven-day call/put skew has recovered to nearly zero from last week’s bearish -4%, per Amberdata. Longer-dated 30- and 60-day skews, though still slightly negative, have also bounced back. Ether’s skew shows a similar recovery. A positive skew reflects stronger demand for calls (bullish bets), while negative levels signal greater demand for puts (downside hedges).

The shift comes as BTC climbs over 4% in seven days to $116,000, with ETH up nearly 8% to $4,650, according to CoinDesk. Traders now await the Fed’s expected 25 bps rate cut, with futures markets pricing a 90%+ probability.

Still, a “jumbo” 50 bps cut remains a slim possibility—and could supercharge the rally.

“A surprise 50 bps rate cut would be a massive +gamma BUY signal for ETH, SOL and BTC. Gold will go absolutely nuts as well,” said Greg Magadini, derivatives head at Amberdata.

Options on SOL already show bullish positioning, with calls trading at a 4–5 vol premium to puts.

If the Fed sticks with a 25 bps cut, BTC is likely to grind higher steadily, while $ETH may take another week to retest its all-time highs and push above $5,000, Magadini added.

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