btc

The two major legendary consensus of Bitcoin have completely collapsed, rewriting the old order of the cryptocurrency world

1. Four-year halving cycle——legendary consensus directly collapses
In the past, the cryptocurrency world recognized the "four-year script" as an iron law: after halving, there would definitely be a surge in 18 months, a big bullish trend in the following year, a peak in the third year, and a bear market in the fourth year. This rhythm has proven reliable and has become the faith of countless investors. However, after the halving in 2024, the market has completely deviated from this pattern, with BTC recording its first negative annual return in 2025, falling about 6% for the year, breaking the historical norm that prices must rise after halving. In just 50 days into 2026, BTC plummeted by 23%, marking the worst start in history, with the market continuing to fluctuate and decline, leveraged funds facing a series of liquidations, and panic spreading. Institutional ETFs rushed to accumulate, crazily draining resources, rendering the marginal effect of halving completely null. BTC has long transformed from a niche crypto asset into a macro asset, with price movements no longer driven by supply and demand cycles but firmly controlled by Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, global liquidity tightening, and sovereign wealth fund allocation rhythms. The once-mythical cycle has completely failed.

2. Chinese New Year red envelope market——Ten-year iron law fails
From 2015 to 2024, BTC recorded gains during the Chinese New Year for 10 consecutive years, with an average increase of 12% and a maximum increase of over 26%. The belief that "Chinese New Year must rise" became the most stable seasonal consensus in the cryptocurrency world, revered by investors as the "red envelope market." However, during the Year of the Snake in 2025, this decade-long record of gains was ruthlessly broken, with BTC falling 2.3%-4% during the Chinese New Year, directly invalidating the iron law. The ten-year myth of rising prices has abruptly come to an end, marking a fundamental shift in market sentiment and capital logic, as traditional seasonal patterns collapse under macro pressures and a new structure dominated by institutions.

The collapse of these two historical consensuses means the complete end of the old cycle and logic in the cryptocurrency world. Future markets will be more closely aligned with the global macro market, as speculative patterns gradually give way to a new paradigm dominated by fundamentals and liquidity.
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#特朗普新全球关税
#美国伊朗对峙
#马尔代夫度假村项目资产代币化
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