The head of Microsoft's artificial intelligence business recently provided a timeline that sent chills down the spines of everyone working at a computer. He stated that the vast majority of tasks in white-collar jobs such as lawyers, accountants, and project managers will be fully automated by artificial intelligence in the next 12 to 18 months. This prediction is currently the most radical in the tech industry.
The data has begun to confirm this trend. According to a report by the job placement company Challenger, in January alone this year, 7,624 layoffs were attributed to AI, accounting for 7% of the total for that month. Since tracking began in 2023, there have been a cumulative total of 79,449 planned layoffs related to AI. The structure of the labor market is being silently reshaped by technology.
An ironic phenomenon is occurring: many white-collar professionals are actively training the systems that will replace them. Reports indicate that Bay Area startup Mercor has hired tens of thousands of contract workers from fields such as medicine, law, and finance, whose task is to provide feedback and training for models from companies like OpenAI and Anthropic. The hourly wage ranges from $45 to $250, but this resembles more of a short-term contract; in the long run, they are reinforcing the logic of replacing themselves.
However, there are differing views in the market regarding the pace of impact. Analysts at Morgan Stanley believe that the comprehensive impact of AI on the economy may take longer to manifest, possibly until the latter part of this decade or even the next decade. They point out that, aside from business investment data, it is still too early to observe significant changes at the economic level.
At the same time, the security and abuse risks brought by AI are escalating sharply. In its latest report, Anthropic warned that its Claude model is more sensitive to 'harmful misuse' in specific computing usage scenarios, even showing risk signals related to the development of chemical weapons.
Last month, Anthropic's CEO Dario Amodei listed a detailed AI risk checklist. He believes that AI could disrupt 50% of entry-level white-collar jobs within 1 to 5 years and give rise to an AI surpassing all human capabilities within 1 to 2 years. He envisioned a more frightening scenario: by around 2027, a 'genius nation' powered by AI could emerge, posing a century-defining national security threat.
He is particularly concerned about the misuse in the field of biology, fearing that selective attacks targeting specific populations could lead to cumulative casualties in the millions. Moreover, AI could empower authoritarian governments, and AI companies themselves, due to their control over data, models, and users, pose a new risk of power centers. The biggest trap lies in the temptation of wealth created by AI—trillions of dollars each year—that might lead all parties involved to choose silence, making it difficult to impose constraints.
This AI-driven productivity revolution and its impact on employment will extend far beyond the tech industry itself. It concerns the stability of the global labor market, the structure of society, and ultimately will profoundly influence capital flows and asset prices. When traditional economic pillars are shaken, capital will seek new avenues. History tells us that during every period of upheaval caused by technological revolutions, certain assets become hedges against uncertainty.
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