The four rounds of bull markets in the cryptocurrency circle: How were ordinary people's doors welded shut?
2013: The eve of Ragnarok
At that time, there were not so many twists and turns; the key word was: be bold.
Wu Jihan and the group of Shen Yu are actually the first batch of people who believed in code. At that time, the BETA was extremely high; as long as you bought the computer and turned it off, or opened the mining machine, as long as you didn't get out, you would end up with A11 or A12 on the account. At this time, there was no need for any tactics; having faith was enough to make money.
2017: The casino of the grassroot heroes
In this round, the logic of making money has changed to: opening a casino and printing chips.
CZ, Xu Mingxing, and Old Li are the biggest winners, and people like Brother Sun, who dare to print money themselves, have made a lot. After Vitalik created ETH, the threshold for issuing coins dropped to the floor. This is the great age of exploration in the crypto world; as long as you dare to rush out and claim territory, you can become the big boss. To be honest, the window of opportunity to become a demigod through institutional dividends has now completely closed off.
2021: Institutions entered the market, solidifying class divisions
This round is quite interesting; newcomers trying to challenge the old gods, like SBF and Do Kwon, basically all end up dying from leverage and Ponzi schemes.
The examples of ordinary people making a comeback have clearly decreased, and the ceiling for wealth creation is also falling. Apart from people like Beeple who hit the jackpot with NFTs, most retail investors find themselves as the ones left holding the bag for institutions. The old gods of the last round have become more stable and stronger; it's not that easy for newcomers to rise up.
2026 (this round): PVP chaotic battle without mutual support
In the current market, I think the term 'prisoner's dilemma' describes it very accurately.
Everyone is no longer foolish; VCs have no one to cash out with, and so-called value projects are still the same AAVE from a few years ago, lacking novelty. So, smart people start to harvest from each other:
VCs are busy cashing out in the secondary market.
The hair-pulling party wiped out the studio.
Quantitative volatility cutting.
Memes have become the only outlet, but big players like Murad are essentially also playing the traffic harvesting game.
The ceiling for retail investors is roughly A9, which is about 100 million; to go higher, you need to be someone like Jeff, who is already at the top of the pyramid.
Why is it getting harder and harder?
In short, the industry has no incremental growth.
Everyone is turning in this circle; project teams want to cut retail investors, retail investors want to cut small dogs, and VCs want to cut everyone. When every role has 'harvesting' written on their faces, this game becomes a high-difficulty PVP arena.
The current cryptocurrency world is no longer that paradise where buying in means getting rich; it's more like a battleground of speed, information asymmetry, and who can run faster. It's a bit unfortunate, but that's the reality.
