Post
BullishBanter
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ALT SEASON IS NOT HERE YET, UNDERSTAND THE REAL SIGNAL
Many traders believe that if Bitcoin Dominance suddenly drops, it means alt season has started. That thinking is too simple. A fall in BTC dominance alone does not automatically create a strong alt rally. The market structure must first repair the heavy damage from previous corrections.
Right now, most altcoins are still trading near long-term cycle lows. For example, if alt dominance once peaked near 60% in a strong cycle and is currently hovering around 25–30%, that gap is huge. Mathematically, that shows the market is still far from expansion mode. Before any true alt season begins, we need a broad recovery phase where major altcoins reclaim key resistance levels and rebuild strength.
The more accurate indicator to watch is the Altcoin Dominance Chart, not just BTC dominance. A real alt season typically begins when alt dominance moves close to its previous cycle highs and shows sustained higher highs and higher lows. That structural shift reflects capital rotation from Bitcoin into altcoins at scale. At the moment, the chart is still compressed near the lower range of the cycle.
Yes, a bounce may come. If alt dominance rises from, say, 28% to 40%, it may feel explosive. Prices could double in some coins, and sentiment will turn bullish. But that would likely be a recovery rally, not a full alt season. True alt season requires strength, volume expansion, and long-term breakout confirmation.
Realistically, the major peak phase for altcoins may not appear until 2027–2028. Until then, any upside move should be treated as structured recovery, not final-cycle euphoria. Patience and proper positioning will matter more than excitement.
Stay disciplined. The market rewards timing, not emotion.
Many traders believe that if Bitcoin Dominance suddenly drops, it means alt season has started. That thinking is too simple. A fall in BTC dominance alone does not automatically create a strong alt rally. The market structure must first repair the heavy damage from previous corrections.
Right now, most altcoins are still trading near long-term cycle lows. For example, if alt dominance once peaked near 60% in a strong cycle and is currently hovering around 25–30%, that gap is huge. Mathematically, that shows the market is still far from expansion mode. Before any true alt season begins, we need a broad recovery phase where major altcoins reclaim key resistance levels and rebuild strength.
The more accurate indicator to watch is the Altcoin Dominance Chart, not just BTC dominance. A real alt season typically begins when alt dominance moves close to its previous cycle highs and shows sustained higher highs and higher lows. That structural shift reflects capital rotation from Bitcoin into altcoins at scale. At the moment, the chart is still compressed near the lower range of the cycle.
Yes, a bounce may come. If alt dominance rises from, say, 28% to 40%, it may feel explosive. Prices could double in some coins, and sentiment will turn bullish. But that would likely be a recovery rally, not a full alt season. True alt season requires strength, volume expansion, and long-term breakout confirmation.
Realistically, the major peak phase for altcoins may not appear until 2027–2028. Until then, any upside move should be treated as structured recovery, not final-cycle euphoria. Patience and proper positioning will matter more than excitement.
Stay disciplined. The market rewards timing, not emotion.
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.