January 2026 US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on February 11, 2026. The data was delayed due to a partial government shutdown but came in as a clear upside surpriseoften labeled a blowout by traders.
Key Highlights from the January 2026 NFP Report
Nonfarm Payrolls: +130,000 jobs added (vs. consensus expectations of 55K–70K with some forecasts as low as 48K–65K
Unemployment Rate: Dropped to 4.3% (from 4.4%, better than the expected 4.4%)
Private Payrolls: +172,000 (strong beat
Wage Growth: Average hourly earnings up 0.30.4% MoM (firm but not runaway)
Sector Breakdown: Gains led by healthcare +82K,l social assistance +42K and construction (+33K). Government jobs declined (e.g., federal cuts).
This marked the strongest monthly job gain in over a year (since around April 2025) and provided relief after a very soft 2025 labor market.
Important Caveat: Massive Downward Revisions to 2025 Data
Annual benchmark revisions slashed 2025 job growth dramatically—from an initial 584,000 total to just 181,000 (averaging only 15K/month vs. prior 49K
Some estimates noted 862,000–898K fewer jobs added through March 2025 than previously reported.
This paints 2025 as far weaker than thought (almost a "hiring freeze" in many sectors outside healthcare), but January's strength suggests the labor market may be stabilizing or troughing into 2026.
Market Reaction & Implications
Dollar & Yields: USD strengthened (DXY bounced), Treasury yields rose as the "resilient economy" narrative returned.
Fed Rate Cuts: Bets on early/more aggressive cuts (e.g., June) were pushed back—markets now pricing the next full cut around July 2026 or later. This challenges dovish expectations.
Equities: Mixed—some initial gains faded as higher-for-longer rates weighed on risk assets; tech/stocks saw uneven moves.
Crypto Ties: In crypto circles (e.g., #USNFPBlowout paired with #USTechFundFlows or altcoin trades), traders see this as risk-on supportive short-term (strong jobs = no immediate recession) but hawkish longer-term (delays liquidity). Posts often link to $BTC /$ETH setups, meme coins, or liquidation heatmaps.
Overall sentiment: Bullish surprise on the headline numbers, but tempered by the ugly 2025 revisions—labor market resilient yet concentrated (healthcare-heavy), no recession imminent, but Fed patience likely extended.
