$XRP dropped 14% in February, and short-term traders are eyeing a potential slide to $1.0 over the next 1–4 weeks. The chart supports caution—but zoom out, and the bigger picture tells a different story.
What’s Keeping Bulls Alive:
• Legislation & ETFs – Market Structure Bill optimism + growing institutional interest via XRP-spot ETF filings.
• Medium-term window (4–8 weeks) points toward $2.5. Stretch to 8–12 weeks, and $3.0 becomes realistic.
Risks to Watch:
• Hawkish Bank of Japan policy → carry trade unwind
• Soft US economic data → recession fears
• Delays in the Market Structure Bill
• XRP-spot ETFs underperforming → potential outflows
Any of these could push $XRP back toward $1.0 or $0.77.
Technical Setup:
• Currently below 50-day EMA ($1.80) and 200-day EMA ($2.18) → bearish structure intact
• Upside: Break $1.50 → 50-day EMA → 200-day EMA
• Downside: Lose lower trendline → $1.12 → $1.0 last line of defense
Macro Outlook:
• Dovish Fed & cooperative BoJ improve risk appetite
• Market Structure Bill passage + ETF inflows → potential breakout toward $3.0–$5.0 over 6–12 months
Patience is key. Watch $1.50 on the upside and $1.0 on the downside—those levels decide the next big move.
