Bitcoin (BTC) is trading near a level that has historically separated mid-cycle corrections from prolonged bear markets - the 200-week exponential moving average, currently at approximately $68,300.
With the token down 47% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000, this week's close could determine whether the sell-off deepens or stabilizes.
The cryptocurrency traded around $67,000–$68,000 on Thursday, hovering just below the 200-week EMA after last week's plunge to $60,000.
What Happened
Analyst Rekt Capital noted that in prior cycles - 2018 and 2022 - a weekly close below the 200-week EMA followed by a failed retest of the level from below triggered what he termed "bearish acceleration," meaning steeper and more sustained price declines.
Bitcoin must close the week above $68,300 to avoid repeating that pattern.
The 200-week EMA, along with the 200-week simple moving average, had been expected to act as a long-term price floor. Last week's drop below $60,000 broke through both levels intraday, though the weekly candle recovered.
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Oversold Readings Offer Counterpoint
Not all indicators point to further losses. Bitcoin's Mayer Multiple - the ratio of price to the 200-day moving average - has dropped to approximately 0.6, according to CryptoQuant data.
Readings below 0.8 have historically coincided with strong long-term buying opportunities.
Only about 5.3% of Bitcoin's trading days have seen a lower Mayer Multiple. Previous instances at this level include the December 2018 bear market bottom, the March 2020 COVID crash, and the November 2022 FTX collapse.
Charles Edwards, founder of quantitative fund Capriole Investments, called the 0.6x reading "historically one of the best buy signals in Bitcoin history," while acknowledging further downside is possible.
Broader Market Context
The technical debate plays out against a deteriorating macro backdrop. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have shed roughly $6 billion in net outflows since November 2025, according to CoinShares data.
CryptoQuant noted that institutional demand has "reversed materially," with ETFs becoming net sellers in 2026 after purchasing 46,000 BTC during the same period last year.
Standard Chartered on Wednesday lowered its near-term target to $50,000 while keeping a year-end call of $100,000. Bernstein, by contrast, called this the "weakest bear case" in Bitcoin's history, citing the absence of major industry failures that typically accompany deeper drawdowns.
Whether that pessimism is warranted or a contrary indicator depends largely on what happens when the weekly candle closes on Sunday.
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